💰 Whale Watching Season Is Here

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THE MAIN EVENT
Whale Watching Season Is Here 🐋

Gather ‘round, Maniacs, the latest round of 13Fs just dropped.

These quarterly filings reveal how Wall Street whales shuffled billions of dollars last quarter. That means we get a rare peek behind the curtain at what the titans are buying, selling, and betting big on.

Here’s what caught my eye:

Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett / Greg Abel)

This was Buffett’s last 13F as CEO, with Greg Abel officially taking the reins on January 1. The handoff didn’t come with fireworks, but it did come with some interesting pivots.

• The Big Sale: Berkshire shocked the market by unloading 77% of its Amazon (AMZN) stake. This move is seen as a cautious step away from the "AI cash bonfire" currently burning through big tech's capital.

• The New Bet: Their only new addition was a $350 million stake in The New York Times (NYT), signaling a classic value play on a digital-first media brand.

• Still Trimming: They continued to pare down Apple (AAPL) and Bank of America (BAC), further growing a cash pile that now exceeds $380 billion.

Nvidia (Corporate Portfolio)

Most people know Nvidia as a chip giant. But it's also become one of the most-watched 13F filers because their investments signal where the AI ecosystem is heading next.

• Intel Is #1: Nvidia now holds a massive $7.9 billion stake in Intel (INTC), accounting for over 60% of its equity portfolio. The companies are deepening their partnership to build integrated CPUs for data centers.

• The Chip Design Play: The firm initiated a $2.2 billion position in Synopsys (SNPS), a leader in the software used to design advanced AI chips.

• Strategic Exits: Nvidia sold out of Arm Holdings (ARM) and Applied Digital (APLD), suggesting a preference for different "neocloud" partners like CoreWeave.

Appaloosa Management (David Tepper)

Tepper is widely regarded as one of the top hedge fund managers. He is known for his opportunistic, contrarian bets.

• Doubling Down: While others are trimming, Tepper tripled his position in Micron (MU) and significantly increased holdings in Meta (META) and Alphabet (GOOG).

• Rotation In Action: To fund those buys, he trimmed Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and exited Alibaba (BABA) entirely.

Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)

Druckenmiller is arguably the most successful living macro investor. From 1981 to 2010, Duquesne Capital had a 30-year winning streak with average annual returns of nearly 30%.

• Powering AI: He opened a new $64 million position in Bloom Energy (BE), betting on the electricity demands of AI data centers.

• Looking Abroad: He also bulked up on the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), moving capital from stretched U.S. tech valuations to international value plays.

Pershing Square (Bill Ackman)

Ackman is a vocal hedge fund manager known for his previous activist investing approach. Now, he runs a highly concentrated "Top 10" style portfolio, making every move significant.

• New in Town: Ackman finally pulled the trigger on a new position in Meta (META) and added to his Amazon (AMZN) stake.

• Old Favorites Out: He completely exited Chipotle (CMG) and trimmed his Alphabet (GOOG) holdings.

MARKET MOOD
Moderna Rallies After FDA Reversal 🔄

Winners

Moderna ($MRNA) - Market Cap: $19.4B (Week-to-Date: +17.7%)

Moderna got a major sentiment shift after the FDA agreed to review its flu vaccine filing, reversing an earlier refusal. The move gives new life to Moderna’s post-COVID pipeline, and sent the stock up 7%. It’s now up nearly 70% in 2026, making it the year’s third highest S&P performer.

Norwegian Cruise ($NCLH) - Market Cap: $10.8B (Week-to-Date: +10.5%)

Activist firm Elliott Management took a 10% stake in Norwegian and wasted no time calling out its bloated cost structure. They want to see better use of its private island and tighter control on bloated back-office spending. If executed properly, Elliott believes shares could double. Investors agreed — and quickly jumped on board.

Paramount ($PSKY) - Market Cap: $12.1B (Week-to-Date: +6.0%)

The takeover drama continues. Warner Bros. rejected Paramount’s $30 bid but agreed to resume negotiations. Paramount has one week to deliver its “best and final” offer. Netflix still holds matching rights, but betting markets now give Paramount the edge. The deal is far from sealed, but momentum has clearly shifted.

Losers

Palo Alto Networks ($PANW) – Market Cap: $122.0B (Week-to-Date: -9.6%)

Sometimes, good just isn’t good enough. Palo Alto posted solid results, but lowered its profit guidance due to increased integration costs from its many acquisitions. Even after a 20% drop in the past month, the stock still trades at 95 times earnings. While this reset is healthy, cybersecurity isn’t going anywhere over the long term. AI will increase the demand and the need for stronger digital defenses.

General Mills ($GIS) – Market Cap: $23.9B (Week-to-Date: -7.3%)

General Mills slashed its sales and profit forecast, now expecting net sales to decline 1% to 2% instead of staying flat. The company blamed weak consumer sentiment and a pullback in food aid benefits. Volume improved where it cut prices, but the company is still dropping 20% of its product lineup.

Walmart ($WMT) – Market Cap: $995.6B (Week-to-Date: -6.7%)

Walmart beat earnings but offered cautious guidance under new CEO John Furner. That’s not surprising, as first-time CEOs often lower the bar to give themselves breathing room. The company flagged labor market risks that could pressure revenue. On the upside, larger-than-expected tax refunds and 27% growth in U.S. e-commerce sales could help offset the drag.

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CHART OF THE WEEK
Are Bonds Still Worth Owning? 🤔

Nearly 90% of global bonds yield less than 5%. That’s the lay of the land.

Here’s what things look like in the U.S.:

• <5Y Treasuries: 3.5% - 3.7%

• 10-Year Treasury: ~4.1%

• 30-Year Treasury: ~4.7%

To earn more than 5%, you’d have to stretch into 20+ year corporate bonds or dip down the credit ladder toward junk bonds.

For context, my Fidelity cash account is yielding about 3.3% right now. Some high-yield savings accounts, like LendingClub, are offering 4%. Safe money is paying something. Just not a lot.

With inflation running between 2% and 3%, most traditional bonds are delivering 1% - 2% “real” returns at best.

So if returns are modest, why own bonds at all?

• Wealth preservation: They reduce volatility and help protect capital when stocks wobble.

• Locking in yield: Today’s 4% is not guaranteed tomorrow.

• Price upside: If rates fall, bonds paying 4% - 5% could rise in value.

Bottom line: bonds are not exciting right now. But they are still a staple part of portfolios, especially as your focus shifts from growing wealth to protecting it.

FAST FACTS
Iran Tensions Send Oil to 7-Month Highs 🛢️

🛢️ Oil jumps 6% on war risk: The U.S. is assembling its largest Middle East air presence since 2003 as Iran braces for possible conflict. [Read]

🏝️ The Sunshine State scores again: Palantir is the latest big name to relocate to Florida, joining Citadel in betting on tax perks, talent, and warmer weather. [Read]

📊 Prediction markets beat economists: A new Fed paper says Kalshi outperformed surveys on CPI forecasts, calling it a statistically significant improvement. [Read]

👟 eBay buys Depop for $1.2B: Shares jumped 7% after the Etsy deal and a Q4 earnings beat. The goal? Capture Gen Z and ride the booming “recommerce” wave. [Read]

🏦 Fed minutes reveal split mood: Officials held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, but debate was lively. Some pushed for cuts, others warned hikes could return if inflation stalls near 3%. [Read]

📈 Stocks keep swinging wildly: Nearly 30% of S&P 500 names have moved more than 20% in the last three months, double the norm. Here’s why. [Read]

🏠 Home builders wave caution flag: Confidence slid to 36, deep in “poor conditions” territory, as higher material costs and stretched buyers stall momentum. [Read]

WORDS TO REMEMBER
The Psychology Behind Every Cycle 🧠

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