💰 Maniac Minute: Walmart’s Warning Spooks Markets

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Good morning, Maniacs!

There’s nervous energy in the markets. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Dow suffered their biggest drop of the year—as Walmart’s grim outlook, falling consumer sentiment, and renewed inflation and tariff concerns spooked investors.

The pros are taking precautions. Berkshire Hathaway is hoarding record levels of cash, hedge funds are trimming Magnificent Seven stakes, and gold is closing in on $3,000 an ounce.

But who isn’t worried? The CEOs running these companies.

Most see improving economic conditions and continue to invest aggressively in the future. Case in point: Mark Zuckerberg, whose latest project is so ambitious it could literally wrap around the world.

Are these leaders seeing something the market isn’t—or just caught up in their own hype?

Let’s dive in!

Market Recap 📈

Stocks took a hit this week as tariff fears, weak economic data, and Walmart’s grim outlook combined for the worst selloff in two months. The S&P 500 and Dow both posted their biggest single-day declines of the year on Friday, wiping out early-week gains.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index plunged nearly 10%, due to rising inflation expectations. Meanwhile, hedge funds are quietly trimming (but not abandoning) their stakes in the Magnificent Seven, and short interest in S&P 500 stocks is at its highest level since 2020.

The flight to safety also sent gold climbing toward $3,000 an ounce, while Treasury yields fell for a sixth straight week as investors shifted into bonds.

Still, not everyone is bracing for impact.

CEOs are feeling the best they have in three years—73% plan to maintain or expand their workforce, and 56% expect economic conditions to improve.

So is this just a shakeout, or the start of something bigger?

As Frank Cappelleri, founder of technical analysis firm CappThesis, puts it: "While one day doesn’t make a trend, the concern is that this could be the early stages of a trend shift."

Of course, that’s the exact kind of paranoia that creates opportunity for long-term bulls.

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Winners & Losers 🚀

From comebacks to crashes, this week had it all. Celsius is on fire, Super Micro absolved itself, and Hims just lost weight the hard way.

Winners

1. Celsius ($CELH) – Market Cap: $7.7B (+46.0%)

Celsius cracked open a can of growth this week. The energy drink company beat earnings expectations and announced a $1.8B acquisition of Alani Nu, a social media-fueled beverage brand targeting female consumers.

The deal could boost market share and bring new customers into the fold. But not everyone’s convinced. Some analysts see it as a strategic way to reignite growth after a slowdown, while others question whether the energy drink boom is peaking.

2. Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) – Market Cap: $32.8B (+17.0%)

Super Micro is clawing its way back from an accounting scandal, regaining investor confidence and reaffirming its AI dominance. An internal probe found no evidence of fraud, and the company reassured markets it would file all outstanding financial reports before Nasdaq’s delisting deadline on February 25.

Adding fuel to the rally, Super Micro set a bold $40B revenue target for 2026 and locked in a major contract with Elon Musk’s xAI data center. The stock is now the best-performing S&P 500 name of 2025, surpassing Palantir. If next week’s filings go smoothly, the rebound could continue—though shares are still 50% below last year’s peak.

3. Devon Energy ($DVN) – Market Cap: $24.3B (+8.3%)

Devon surged after beating earnings, hiking its dividend by 9%, and hitting record production levels. Output exceeded guidance thanks to strong results in the Delaware and Powder River basins. Plus, efficiency gains helped to offset 10% lower oil prices.

Investors love the focus on returning cash to shareholders, but some analysts warn that oversupply could weigh on prices moving forward.

Losers

1. Hims & Hers ($HIMS) – Market Cap: $11.0B (-18.8%)

The Ozempic trade lost weight fast this week. Hims tumbled after the FDA declared the shortage of Ozempic and Wegovy officially over, forcing companies selling knockoff versions—like Hims—to wind down production.

After a 120% rally this year, the weight-loss hype train just hit a red light. Combine that with controversy over Hims’ Super Bowl ad, and Monday’s Q4 earnings could bring more turbulence.

2. Carvana ($CVNA) – Market Cap: $26.1B (-21.7%)

Carvana posted record revenue (+46% YoY) and a 498% surge in EBITDA, but investors still hit the brakes.

Why? No concrete 2025 guidance and a surprise $913M equity raise, which sent investors running for the exits. Even with the drop, Carvana is still up 350% in the last 12 months, so this may just be a cooldown. But with automobile tariffs on deck and used car prices in flux, the road ahead looks bumpy.

The Real Secret To Maximizing Returns 💡

Dividend investing is one of the most popular strategies out there—after all, who doesn’t love passive income?

But research from Chris Satterthwaite at Verdad suggests that dividends alone aren’t the secret sauce—it’s total shareholder yield that really drives returns.

Satterthwaite analyzed 24,000 companies over nearly three decades and ranked them by dividend yield, repurchase yield, and total shareholder yield. The results?

1. Higher dividend yields didn’t lead to higher future returns for U.S. stocks. However, in international markets (excluding emerging markets), higher dividend yields did correlate with stronger performance.

2. Companies with higher repurchase yields (buybacks minus share issuance) tended to outperform those with lower buyback activity, both in the U.S. and internationally.

3. Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) was the best predictor of performance, with higher payouts correlating with higher future returns.

So if dividends don’t tell the full story, why do so many investors swear by them?

For one, companies that pay dividends tend to outperform those that don’t. Dividends signal maturity, profitability, and financial stability—traits linked to strong long-term returns.

But here’s the catch: more dividends don’t mean more returns.

Simply chasing high-yield stocks can lead to value traps, and ignoring buybacks means missing a key piece of shareholder returns.

Because total shareholder yield captures both dividends and buybacks, it provides a clearer picture of which companies are truly rewarding investors.

The takeaway? Dividends can be a great sign of quality, but they’re not the holy grail. If you’re looking for the best long-term returns, total shareholder yield is the metric to watch.

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Worth The Read 📚

📄 Berkshire’s Annual Letter is out, and Buffett isn’t mincing words. From capital allocation mistakes to record cash reserves, here’s what the Oracle of Omaha is telling investors.

✈️ Delta Air Lines offers $30K to each passenger from its dramatic Toronto crash landing.

⚖️ DOJ investigates UnitedHealth, wiping out $30B in market value. The probe centers on Medicare billing practices that allegedly led to billions in extra payments.

🧪 Microsoft’s “Majorana 1” chip could be a quantum computing breakthrough, using a new state of matter to improve stability and scalability.

📱 Apple unveils the iPhone 16e, a $599 “budget-friendly” model featuring Apple Intelligence and its first in-house modem.

📉 Nvidia’s portfolio update sent stocks flying, with investors scrambling to follow the AI giant’s moves. WeRide soared 83%, while Serve Robotics and SoundHound tanked.

💰 A man who lost 7,500 Bitcoin in a landfill wants to buy the dump—because, well, it could be worth nearly $770 million.

⚠️ Argentina’s president faces impeachment calls after promoting a crypto token, which soared and then collapsed, wiping out investors.

✂️ Hegseth orders the Pentagon to prep for deep cuts, aiming to slash 8% annually over the next five years. His mission? “DOGE the waste; double down on warriors.”

🚗 Trump floats 25% tariffs on autos, chips, and pharma, signaling a major shift in trade policy. Companies may get time to re-shore production—if they act fast.

The Week Ahead 🔍

A packed earnings lineup awaits, led by Nvidia, the three trillion-dollar AI giant. By Friday, all eyes will be on Core PCE, the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge.

Monday

• Earnings from Public Storage, Realty Income, Zoom, Domino’s, and Hims & Hers

Tuesday

• Earnings from Home Depot, Intuit, Workday, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Extra Space Storage, First Solar, CAVA, Lucid, Planet Fitness, Caesars, and Macy’s

• February Consumer Confidence (est. 102.1)

Wednesday

• Earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce, Lowe’s, TJX Companies, Anheuser-Busch, Snowflake, Monster, Stellantis, eBay, Pure Storage, Invitation Homes, Paramount, and Joby

• December Case-Schiller Home Prices (est. 4.2% YoY)

• January New Home Sales (est. 690K)

Thursday

• Earnings from Dell, Autodesk, Vistra, HP, Warner Bros, Edison, Duolingo, Rocket Lab, and Norwegian

• January Durable Goods Orders (est. 1.3% MoM)

• Q4 GDP Growth Rate (second est. 2.3% QoQ)

Friday

• January PCE (est. 0.4% MoM, 2.5% YoY)

• January Core PCE (est. 0.4% MoM, 2.7% YoY)

• January Personal Income (est. 0.3% MoM)

• January Personal Spending (est. -0.3% MoM)

That’s a wrap! See you next Monday with all the market insights and money tips you need to stay ahead.

Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

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DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.