💰 5 Fact Friday: UK Signs & Bitcoin Booms

ECONOMY
1. Tariff Tensions Ease: UK Deal & China Talks ✍️

The White House just sealed two firsts that could reshape global trade flows—and investors’ playbooks.

Yesterday, the administration announced its first post‑Liberation Day trade agreement with the UK. And this weekend, it’s sending Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Switzerland for the first face-to-face tariff talks with China since the new duties took effect.

What’s In The US‑UK Deal?

Tariffs trimmed, not trashed. Washington’s blanket 10% levy on UK goods stays, but auto duties drop to 10% from 27.5% on the first 100k cars. Plus, the 25% steel‑and‑aluminium surcharge disappears entirely.

Boeing, beef, and biofuels win. The UK has agreed to purchase $10 billion worth of jets from Boeing $BA ( ▼ 1.33% ) and to increase import quotas for American beef and ethanol.

Digital tax on the table. While not finalized in this deal, the UK has agreed to work toward a digital trade agreement that would restructure its 2% digital services tax—a levy that’s long frustrated U.S. tech giants.

Why it matters. The UK shipped £60 bn ($80 bn) in goods to America last year, its top market. Even modest tariff relief could boost profits for UK automakers and metal producers, while giving US farmers and manufacturers new demand.

President Trump framed the deal as a vindication of his aggressive strategy: “This opens up a tremendous market for us,” he said, adding that “blowing up the system” made a fair deal easier to reach.

US‑China Reset In Neutral Territory

Now, attention turns to China.

The White House’s “good cop,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is headed to Switzerland to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. It’s the first formal diplomatic contact since retaliatory tariffs spiraled out of control last month, and a step toward de-escalation.

Acknowledging the stakes, Bessent said: “We have a shared interest that isn’t sustainable. And 145% and 125% is the equivalent of an embargo. We don’t want to decouple. What we want is fair trade.”

The meeting stems from Beijing’s offer to crack down on fentanyl production, an olive branch that opened the door to broader trade talks.

While economists like Nomura’s Ting Lu have called the meeting “encouraging progress,” most expect that a meaningful deal could take months to materialize.

What Could Follow?

Copy‑and‑paste template. Commerce Secretary Lutnick says “mini-deals” are being prepared for dozens of other countries, following the same UK blueprint.

Market optimism. Hopes for a broader thaw nudged the S&P 500 up 0.6%, the Dow up 0.6%, and the Nasdaq up 1.1%.

The UK trade deal could mark the beginning of the end of the tariff war. It’s a first step on a long and winding journey—one deal down, dozens to go.

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COMMODITIES
2. Relief For Consumers, Pressure For Producers 🛢️

Crude oil has tumbled from as high as $80 in January to $60 today, marking an 18% year-to-date decline.

Two forces are driving the sell-off: OPEC+ just approved a second consecutive production hike, and global growth forecasts continue to weaken.

Lower prices help:

1) Drivers. Analysts now see U.S. gasoline dipping below $3/gallon this summer.

2) Airlines & chemicals. Jet fuel and naphtha—a key input for making plastics and petrochemicals—both become cheaper as oil prices fall.

3) Freight. Diesel prices have declined alongside crude, easing costs for truckers and logistics firms.

But shale drillers are feeling the pain.

Most U.S. producers need $50-$60 oil just to break even. Former Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield put it bluntly: “It’s really hard to make money at $50 oil.”

If prices stay depressed, companies may scale back drilling and investment, slowing U.S. supply growth. Some analysts believe OPEC is banking on that to reclaim market share.

What’s An Investor To Do?

Here’s what to watch:

Winners: Consumer brands, airlines, and logistics companies could benefit from lower fuel and shipping costs.

Losers: Oil producers and drilling service firms could suffer as profits shrink and new projects get shelved.

Lower oil prices could also help cool inflation, giving the Federal Reserve more room to pause or cut interest rates. That would be a tailwind for tech stocks and bonds, which tend to benefit when borrowing costs fall.

CRYPTO
3. Bitcoin Blasts Back Above $100K 🚀

Bitcoin $BTC.X ( ▼ 1.86% ) ripped through six figures again this week, peaking as high as $104K yesterday afternoon before settling near $102K.

The Bulls Are Back

After a brutal drawdown from January’s $109K high to April’s $76K low, momentum has flipped. Here’s what’s driving the rebound:

Easier policy, looser conditions. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the People’s Bank of China have all cut rates in recent weeks. That’s easing financial conditions globally and creating an investor-friendly environment.

Risk-on revival. “Markets have clearly shifted to a more risk-on tone,” said eToro analyst Josh Gilbert. “Trade tensions appear to be easing… and that’s helping lift sentiment across risk assets, particularly bitcoin.”

ETF fire-hose. Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.8 billion last week after drawing $3.1 billion the week before, a sign of significant investor appetite.

Supply squeeze. Exchange balances sit near a five‑year low around 2.3M BTC, as demand outpaces supply and investors move holdings to cold storage—presumably for the long haul.

State-level tailwind. New Hampshire just approved investing up to 5% of public funds in Bitcoin, while Arizona established a Bitcoin Reserve Fund to hold unclaimed assets.

What Comes Next?

Renewed risk appetite, relentless ETF demand, global rate cuts, and shrinking supply are breathing new life into Bitcoin’s 2025 rally.

A clean break above the $109K all-time high would open the door to the next psychological level of $120K. But keep an eye on ETF flows and macro headlines—another tariff flare-up could still yank the crypto tide.

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ECONOMY
4. Fed Freezes Rates, Eyes Tariff Fallout 🚦

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate parked at 4.25%-4.50% for a third straight meeting. The unanimous vote signals faith in today’s sturdy economy, even as officials admit the outlook could shift quickly.

Why The Pause Is In Question

Economy still humming: Inflation continues to cool, unemployment remains near historic lows, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model pegs second‑quarter growth at 2.3%—hardly a recessionary readout.

Backward‑looking data: Unfortunately, inflation and payroll reports arrive with a lag. So by the time those numbers confirm trouble, the Fed could be reacting well after a slowdown has already begun.

Mixed signals abound: Consumer confidence is in the gutter, container traffic at U.S. ports is slowing, and capital‑spending plans are getting trimmed. Wallets—and C‑suites—are clearly cautious.

Tariff turmoil: Powell stated that if current tariff levels are sustained, they could lift prices, dent growth, and drive unemployment higher.

A Delicate Balancing Act

The Fed is in a tight spot. Cut too soon, and risk re-igniting the inflation that’s taken years to quell. Cut too late, and risk accelerating a downturn—or even triggering a recession.

Powell’s current stance? Wait, watch, and act decisively once the trend is clear.

Politics, Meet Policy

President Trump has called for the Fed to get ahead of a slowdown and start cutting rates now, branding Powell a “major loser” for holding firm. Powell, however, remains committed to the Fed’s independence.

“They don’t need… our advice on how to do fiscal policy any more than we need their advice on monetary policy,” he quipped—prompting laughs from reporters.

What Wall Street Thinks

Futures traders still expect 0.75% cuts by December, with nearly 50% odds for a first cut in July .

If that script sticks, it would likely boost stocks and Bitcoin, clip gold, and shrink the juicy yields on high-yield savings accounts. If you like today’s CD or Treasury rates, you may want to lock them in by early summer.

STOCKS
5. Guess That Stock 🕵️‍♂️

Its characters span galaxies and generations, but this entertainment giant is focused on something new: a comeback.

Can you name the stock?

1. This household name popped 10% after posting strong earnings and hiking its full-year guidance.

2. Its streaming division added 1.4M subscribers and posted its third consecutive profitable quarter. Smarter pricing, a password-sharing crackdown, and hits like Moana 2 helped drive the gains.

3. Experience revenue rose 6%, but the real magic is going global: the company is building its seventh theme park in Abu Dhabi.

4. Leadership is shifting strategy from more to better, especially at its superhero studios, and says the upcoming lineup is the strongest film slate since 2019.

5. The company’s cruise division is also making waves, with plans to nearly double its fleet by 2030 as demand for family travel surges.

Got a guess? Tap here to reveal the answer → 

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