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- đ° 5 Fact Friday: UK Signs & Bitcoin Booms
đ° 5 Fact Friday: UK Signs & Bitcoin Booms
Bitcoin is back over $100K. Stocks are rallying. And for the first time in history, we have an American pope. The Fed held rates steady. The UK just signed the first postâLiberation Day trade deal. And tomorrow, Scott Bessent sits down with China.
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Hey Money Maniacs,
Bitcoin is back over $100K. Stocks are rallying. And for the first time in history, we have an American pope.
The Fed held rates steady. The UK just signed the first postâLiberation Day trade deal. And tomorrow, Scott Bessent sits down with China.
From crypto catalysts to oilâs four-year low, weâre breaking down what it all means for your money.
Letâs dive in!
ECONOMY
1. Tariff Tensions Ease: UK Deal & China Talks âď¸
The White House just sealed two firsts that could reshape global trade flowsâand investorsâ playbooks.
Yesterday, the administration announced its first postâLiberation Day trade agreement with the UK. And this weekend, itâs sending Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Switzerland for the first face-to-face tariff talks with China since the new duties took effect.
Whatâs In The USâUK Deal?
Tariffs trimmed, not trashed. Washingtonâs blanket 10% levy on UK goods stays, but auto duties drop to 10% from 27.5% on the first 100k cars. Plus, the 25% steelâandâaluminium surcharge disappears entirely.
Boeing, beef, and biofuels win. The UK has agreed to purchase $10 billion worth of jets from Boeing $BA ( âź 1.33% ) and to increase import quotas for American beef and ethanol.
Digital tax on the table. While not finalized in this deal, the UK has agreed to work toward a digital trade agreement that would restructure its 2% digital services taxâa levy thatâs long frustrated U.S. tech giants.
Why it matters. The UK shipped ÂŁ60âŻbn ($80âŻbn) in goods to America last year, its top market. Even modest tariff relief could boost profits for UK automakers and metal producers, while giving US farmers and manufacturers new demand.
President Trump framed the deal as a vindication of his aggressive strategy: âThis opens up a tremendous market for us,â he said, adding that âblowing up the systemâ made a fair deal easier to reach.
President Trump is... |
USâChina Reset In Neutral Territory
Now, attention turns to China.
The White Houseâs âgood cop,â Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is headed to Switzerland to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Itâs the first formal diplomatic contact since retaliatory tariffs spiraled out of control last month, and a step toward de-escalation.
Acknowledging the stakes, Bessent said: âWe have a shared interest that isnât sustainable. And 145% and 125% is the equivalent of an embargo. We donât want to decouple. What we want is fair trade.â
The meeting stems from Beijingâs offer to crack down on fentanyl production, an olive branch that opened the door to broader trade talks.
While economists like Nomuraâs Ting Lu have called the meeting âencouraging progress,â most expect that a meaningful deal could take months to materialize.
What Could Follow?
Copyâandâpaste template. Commerce Secretary Lutnick says âmini-dealsâ are being prepared for dozens of other countries, following the same UK blueprint.
Market optimism. Hopes for a broader thaw nudged the S&PâŻ500 up 0.6%, the Dow up 0.6%, and the Nasdaq up 1.1%.
The UK trade deal could mark the beginning of the end of the tariff war. Itâs a first step on a long and winding journeyâone deal down, dozens to go.
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COMMODITIES
2. Relief For Consumers, Pressure For Producers đ˘ď¸
Crude oil has tumbled from as high as $80 in January to $60 today, marking an 18% year-to-date decline.
Two forces are driving the sell-off: OPEC+ just approved a second consecutive production hike, and global growth forecasts continue to weaken.
Lower prices help:
1) Drivers. Analysts now see U.S. gasoline dipping below $3/gallon this summer.
2) Airlines & chemicals. Jet fuel and naphthaâa key input for making plastics and petrochemicalsâboth become cheaper as oil prices fall.
3) Freight. Diesel prices have declined alongside crude, easing costs for truckers and logistics firms.
But shale drillers are feeling the pain.
Most U.S. producers need $50-$60 oil just to break even. Former Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield put it bluntly: âItâs really hard to make money at $50 oil.â
If prices stay depressed, companies may scale back drilling and investment, slowing U.S. supply growth. Some analysts believe OPEC is banking on that to reclaim market share.
Whatâs An Investor To Do?
Hereâs what to watch:
Winners: Consumer brands, airlines, and logistics companies could benefit from lower fuel and shipping costs.
Losers: Oil producers and drilling service firms could suffer as profits shrink and new projects get shelved.
Lower oil prices could also help cool inflation, giving the Federal Reserve more room to pause or cut interest rates. That would be a tailwind for tech stocks and bonds, which tend to benefit when borrowing costs fall.
CRYPTO
3. BitcoinâŻBlastsâŻBack AboveâŻ$100KâŻđ
Bitcoin $BTC.X ( âź 1.86% ) ripped through six figures again this week, peaking as high as $104K yesterday afternoon before settling near $102K.
The Bulls Are Back
After a brutal drawdown from Januaryâs $109K high to Aprilâs $76K low, momentum has flipped. Hereâs whatâs driving the rebound:
Easier policy, looser conditions. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Peopleâs Bank of China have all cut rates in recent weeks. Thatâs easing financial conditions globally and creating an investor-friendly environment.
Risk-on revival. âMarkets have clearly shifted to a more risk-on tone,â said eToro analyst JoshâŻGilbert. âTrade tensions appear to be easing⌠and thatâs helping lift sentiment across risk assets, particularly bitcoin.â
ETF fire-hose. Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.8 billion last week after drawing $3.1 billion the week before, a sign of significant investor appetite.
Supply squeeze. Exchange balances sit near a fiveâyear low around 2.3MâŻBTC, as demand outpaces supply and investors move holdings to cold storageâpresumably for the long haul.
State-level tailwind. New Hampshire just approved investing up to 5% of public funds in Bitcoin, while Arizona established a Bitcoin Reserve Fund to hold unclaimed assets.
What Comes Next?
Renewed risk appetite, relentless ETF demand, global rate cuts, and shrinking supply are breathing new life into Bitcoinâs 2025 rally.
A clean break above the $109K all-time high would open the door to the next psychological level of $120K. But keep an eye on ETF flows and macro headlinesâanother tariff flare-up could still yank the crypto tide.
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ECONOMY
4. FedâŻFreezes Rates, Eyes Tariff Fallout đŚ
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate parked at 4.25%-4.50% for a third straight meeting. The unanimous vote signals faith in todayâs sturdy economy, even as officials admit the outlook could shift quickly.
Why The Pause Is In Question
Economy still humming: Inflation continues to cool, unemployment remains near historic lows, and the AtlantaâŻFedâs GDPNow model pegs secondâquarter growth at 2.3%âhardly a recessionary readout.
Backwardâlooking data: Unfortunately, inflation and payroll reports arrive with a lag. So by the time those numbers confirm trouble, the Fed could be reacting well after a slowdown has already begun.
Mixed signals abound: Consumer confidence is in the gutter, container traffic at U.S. ports is slowing, and capitalâspending plans are getting trimmed. Walletsâand Câsuitesâare clearly cautious.
Tariff turmoil: Powell stated that if current tariff levels are sustained, they could lift prices, dent growth, and drive unemployment higher.
A Delicate Balancing Act
The Fed is in a tight spot. Cut too soon, and risk re-igniting the inflation thatâs taken years to quell. Cut too late, and risk accelerating a downturnâor even triggering a recession.
Powellâs current stance? Wait, watch, and act decisively once the trend is clear.
Politics, Meet Policy
President Trump has called for the Fed to get ahead of a slowdown and start cutting rates now, branding Powell a âmajor loserâ for holding firm. Powell, however, remains committed to the Fedâs independence.
âThey donât need⌠our advice on how to do fiscal policy any more than we need their advice on monetary policy,â he quippedâprompting laughs from reporters.
What WallâŻStreet Thinks
Futures traders still expect 0.75% cuts by December, with nearly 50% odds for a first cut in JulyâŻ.
If that script sticks, it would likely boost stocks and Bitcoin, clip gold, and shrink the juicy yields on high-yield savings accounts. If you like todayâs CD or Treasury rates, you may want to lock them in by early summer.
STOCKS
5. Guess That Stock đľď¸ââď¸
Its characters span galaxies and generations, but this entertainment giant is focused on something new: a comeback.
Can you name the stock?
1. This household name popped 10% after posting strong earnings and hiking its full-year guidance.
2. Its streaming division added 1.4M subscribers and posted its third consecutive profitable quarter. Smarter pricing, a password-sharing crackdown, and hits like Moana 2 helped drive the gains.
3. Experience revenue rose 6%, but the real magic is going global: the company is building its seventh theme park in Abu Dhabi.
4. Leadership is shifting strategy from more to better, especially at its superhero studios, and says the upcoming lineup is the strongest film slate since 2019.
5. The companyâs cruise division is also making waves, with plans to nearly double its fleet by 2030 as demand for family travel surges.
Got a guess? Tap here to reveal the answer â
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