💰 Maniac Minute: $TRUMP Coin’s $58B Debut

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Good morning, Maniacs!

Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Inauguration Day. While the markets take a breather, all eyes are on Trump’s Day One moves. Investors anticipate a flurry of executive orders that could ripple through the economy—and maybe even make Bill Ackman a bit richer.

Meanwhile, TikTok’s fate remains uncertain, and Bitcoin cruised past $100K before getting upstaged by the brand new $TRUMP coin.

Let’s dive in!

Market Recap 📈

It was the best week for stocks since November’s election, as markets celebrated strong economic data and the promise of a pro-growth administration.

Lingering nerves from the prior week’s too-hot jobs report faded on Wednesday when December’s inflation figure came in 0.1% below expectations. Most importantly, housing inflation—the largest component of CPI—showed its smallest increase in three years.

This cooler inflation reading sent 10-year Treasury yields sliding to 4.6%, easing pressure on stocks across the board. Every major index rallied, with the small-cap Russell 2000 leading the charge.

Bitcoin joined the rally too, soaring past $100K. But the excitement peaked at Friday’s "Crypto Ball," where the president-elect unveiled $TRUMP coin—which promptly skyrocketed to a staggering $58B market cap.

Fair warning: much like Trump Media & Technology Group ($DJT), which owns Truth Social, $TRUMP is a memecoin—essentially a proxy bet on Trump’s popularity. Put it firmly in the speculation camp, not the investment one.

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Winners & Losers 🚀

Some stocks crushed it, while others crumbled. Here’s the scoop on last week’s most notable market movers.

Winners

1. Robinhood Markets ($HOOD) – Market Cap: $42.6B (+20.1%)

After a rocky post-IPO debut, Robinhood is back in Wall Street’s good graces. Morgan Stanley dubbed it a “Top Pick,” and Bernstein called it a “Top Idea for 2025.” With Bitcoin breaking $100K and optimism surrounding a friendlier regulatory environment, HOOD’s stock is on fire—up more than 300% over the past year.

2. Schlumberger ($SLB) – Market Cap: $61.5B (+12.8%)

A blowout earnings report pushed SLB to double-digit gains. Revenue climbed 3% to $9.3B, while earnings rose 7%, both topping estimates. The company announced an increased dividend and a $2.3B accelerated share buyback, aiming to return $4B to shareholders in 2025. The CEO hinted at rising oil prices and played the ‘ol “AI is the X factor for our industry” card, which gave the stock an extra boost.

3. Intel ($INTC) – Market Cap: $92.7B (+12.2%)

Former Dow member Intel surged on rumors of a potential takeover. SemiAccurate—a media outlet that’s definitely not overpromising—reported a “90% confidence” that an unnamed buyer is eyeing the chipmaker. While details are scarce, the market couldn’t resist the buzz—especially after last year’s Qualcomm deal fell apart.

Losers

1. Eli Lilly ($LLY) – Market Cap: $652.7B (-9.3%)

Eli Lilly stumbled this week after revising Q4 sales guidance down, as both Mounjaro and Zepbound underperformed. CEO David Ricks addressed the shortfall, saying, “It’s always disappointing to miss on expectations. We own that.” While Lilly’s growth prospects remain strong, the market swiftly repriced the stock, delivering a sharp dose of reality.

2. Novo Nordisk ($NVO) – Market Cap: $351.6B (-8.8%)

Novo Nordisk tumbled after its weight-loss and diabetes drugs were added to Medicare’s price negotiation list. Previous rounds of negotiation have slashed drug prices by 40–80%, and while these changes won’t kick in until 2027, the market didn’t wait to react. Lower margins loom large, even if expanded access could bolster sales.

Ackman’s Public Pitch Gains Traction 🚀

Earlier this month, we discussed Bill Ackman’s big bet on Fannie Mae ($FNMA) and Freddie Mac ($FMCC)—the mortgage giants stuck in a 16-year conservatorship. If you missed that breakdown, check out The Long Road to Privatization for the backstory.

This week, Ackman shared his full thesis with a 90-minute presentation on X, sending Fannie and Freddie shares up 20% and 30% respectively.

The Bull Case: A Path to $30+

Ackman laid out a clear roadmap for re-privatizing the GSEs, with sequential IPOs and share price targets that caught investors’ attention:

• Fannie Mae: $35 in 2 years (125% CAGR from $6.94 today)

• Freddie Mac: $39 in 3 years (85% CAGR from $6.10 today)

Ackman argues that privatization doesn’t just benefit shareholders—it could unlock $300 billion for taxpayers while preserving the affordability of 30-year mortgages. His key moves:

1. Lower capital requirements from 4% to 2.5%—a level he feels is both safe and efficient.

2. IPO Fannie in 2026 ($5B) and Freddie in 2027 ($15B), gradually selling off the Treasury’s warrants over five years.

3. Remove the explicit government guarantee on MBS while maintaining a 25 bps backstop fee.

Why Now? Timing Is Everything

Ackman’s case hinges on a second Trump administration, which he believes will prioritize privatization. He sees today’s strong economy, pro-business leadership, and improving GSE fundamentals as a perfect storm.

Ackman even pointed to his past success with General Growth Properties—a company he guided from bankruptcy to NYSE relisting—to show how distressed assets can rise from the ashes.

The Risks: No Guarantees Here

1. Government Inaction: If privatization isn’t a political priority, the GSEs could remain stuck in limbo.

2. Dilution: Even if Ackman’s plan moves forward, existing shareholders could face severe dilution if the government converts its preferred shares to common shares instead of canceling them outright. (That’s a big “if.”)

Bottom Line

Ackman’s bet is bold, and the upside is undeniable if everything falls into place. With Fannie Mae’s price-to-earnings ratio sitting at just 4x, the valuation argument is compelling.

But the risks—political uncertainty and potential shareholder dilution—are significant.

Whether this is a moonshot or just another long-term waiting game depends on your individual risk/reward assessment. This trade isn’t for everyone, but it’s one to watch closely.

Worth The Read 📚

💳 Americans are tipping less, with restaurant tips falling below 19% on average. Inflation and “tipping fatigue” are pushing diners to skip out on extra gratuities, especially on digital tip screens.

🏠 Wall Street says U.S. homes are overpriced by as much as 15%, with institutional buyers sitting out. Big landlords can’t make the math work—unless prices drop, so they’re staying on the sidelines.

📱 Apple fell to third place in China’s smartphone market after shipments dropped 17% in 2024. Local competitors like Huawei and Vivo are winning with lower prices and better AI features.

⚖️ States with strict abortion bans are losing 36,000 residents per quarter, mostly younger, single households. Economists warn this could have long-term impacts on workforce growth and economic stability.

⏳ The Supreme Court upheld a TikTok ban unless ByteDance sells its U.S. operations. Trump hinted at a 90-day extension, while TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew preps for a VIP seat at today’s inauguration.

🐼 The TikTok ban is driving users to RedNote, a Chinese rival app, while Mandarin lessons on Duolingo spiked 216%. The company’s stock jumped, and its mascot had a field day teasing users on X.

💼 Capital One is under fire from the CFPB for allegedly freezing savers’ interest rates, keeping $2B from consumers. Analysts say the lawsuit won’t derail its $35B Discover takeover, but the headlines might sting.

❤️ GoFundMe is reshaping disaster relief but not without flaws. Wealthier families raise 25% more on average, revealing how social networks often determine who gets help—and who doesn’t.

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The Week Ahead 🔍

It’s a short week, but not a quiet one. With markets closed today, investors are waiting with bated breath to react to Trump’s first moves. The stage is set for a flood of policy changes and a packed earnings lineup.

Monday

• Martin Luther King Jr. Day

• Inauguration Day

• Markets closed

Tuesday

• Earnings from Netflix, Charles Schwab, Prologis, 3M, Capital One, and United Airlines

Wednesday

• Earnings from Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Abbott Labs, Progressive, GE Vernova, Kinder Morgan, Travelers, Discover, Las Vegas Sands, and Halliburton

• January Leading Economic Indicators

Thursday

• Earnings from Intuitive Surgical, GE Aerospace, Texas Instruments, Union Pacific, Freeport-McMoran, FICO, and American Airlines

Friday

• Earnings from American Express, Verizon, NextEra Energy, and HCA Healthcare

• December Existing Home Sales (est. 4.16 million)

• January Consumer Sentiment (est. 73.2)

That’s a wrap! See you next Monday with all the market insights and money tips you need to stay ahead.

Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

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DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.