💰 Maniac Minute: The Tariffs Are Coming, The Tariffs Are Coming!

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Good morning, Maniacs!

Markets are skittish, sensitive, and running on headlines. A DeepSeek-driven AI panic? Big drop. Strong earnings? Recovery. Trump’s tariff bombshell? Another sell-off—setting up for a rough Monday.

This is the reality of 2025’s market: hypersensitive and quick to react.

Our first Maniac Sentiment Index confirms it—a 2.7/5 reading signals a crowd that’s neutral but leaning bearish. But where we go from here depends on what happens next—earnings, inflation, and geopolitics are all still in play.

Now, let’s dive in!

Market Recap 📈

January wrapped up with a gold rush, tariff drama, and a choppy stock market.

Gold hit an all-time high, topping $2,838 per ounce as investors continue to seek safety. Just a year ago, it was barely holding above $2,000.

Meanwhile, the dollar had its best week since November, after President Trump warned BRICS nations they’d face 100% tariffs if they replaced the dollar in trade.

Stocks took investors on a ride. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped on the DeepSeek panic, clawed their way back, then sold off again as the White House rolled out new tariffs—25% on Mexico, 25% on Canada, 10% on China.

The Dow eked out a small gain and ended January up 4%, while the S&P 500 added nearly 3%.

On the economic front, Q4 GDP came in at 2.3%, a bit shy of expectations but capping a 2.8% growth rate for 2024—just under 2023’s pace. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation held steady at 2.8%, showing zero progress on cooling down.

Earnings season is still full speed ahead, tracking its fastest quarterly growth rate in three years. With the Fed holding rates steady, tariffs kicking off tomorrow, and inflation still in focus, February is shaping up to be another volatile month.

The AI Stock Poised to Soar Under Trump’s $500B Plan

Nvidia was a standout opportunity back in February 2019, delivering a massive 490% return.

Now, there's another under-the-radar AI stock, 2,500x smaller than Nvidia, with significant potential. And with Trump’s recent $500 billion AI push, the timing couldn’t be better.

View Our Top Stock of 2025

Winners & Losers 🚀

From AI meltdowns to caffeine-fueled comebacks, this week’s biggest movers tell a story of shifting market narratives. Let’s break down who’s smooth sailing and who’s hitting rough waters.

Winners

1. Royal Caribbean Cruises ($RCL) – Market Cap: $71.7B (+14.9%)

The cruise giant sailed past earnings expectations, with net income nearly doubling to $553M. Revenue climbed 13%, and the company announced its entry into the luxury river cruise market—diversifying beyond ocean voyages. Barclays upped its price target to $308—15% above the current price—as Royal Caribbean benefits from the ongoing shift in consumer spending toward experiences.

2. Alibaba ($BABA) – Market Cap: $234.8B (+10.9%)

China’s e-commerce and cloud juggernaut surged after unveiling Qwen 2.5-Max, an upgraded AI model it claims outperforms OpenAI’s GPT-4o and Google’s Gemini 2.0 Flash in key areas like video analysis, document parsing, and math. Despite trailing DeepSeek’s latest R1 model, this keeps Alibaba in the AI race—just not in the lead.

3. Starbucks ($SBUX) – Market Cap: $122.3B (+9.0%)

Starbucks’ turnaround plan is brewing up optimism. The coffee giant beat earnings expectations despite a 4% decline in global same-store sales. CEO Brian Niccol’s push to bring back the "third place" experience—with self-service condiment bars, free refills, and cozier seating—is resonating with investors, even as customer traffic remains a challenge.

Losers

1. NVIDIA ($NVDA) – Market Cap: $2.94T (-15.8%)

AI’s golden child took a massive hit as Chinese startup DeepSeek sent shockwaves through the industry. DeepSeek claims its AI models rival OpenAI’s but were trained at a fraction of the cost—raising fears that massive spending on high-end chips might not be necessary. The result? A nearly $600B market cap wipeout for Nvidia, the largest single-day loss ever for a U.S. company.

2. United Parcel Service ($UPS) – Market Cap: $97.5B (-14.1%)

UPS is cutting ties with its biggest (but not most profitable) customer, Amazon. The e-commerce giant accounts for 12% of UPS’s total sales, but more than half of that business will be gone by June 2026. The move mirrors FedEx’s 2019 breakup with Amazon, though UPS is more dependent. While CEO Carol Tomé says the margins were too thin, investors are focused on the revenue hit.

The IRA Dilemma: Traditional or Roth?

It’s early February, which means it’s prime time to trim that tax bill. One of the best ways to do so is with an IRA (Individual Retirement Account).

There are two types of IRAs to consider, but they’re taxed very differently:

• Traditional IRA: Contribute pre-tax money now, get a tax deduction, and pay taxes later when you withdraw.

• Roth IRA: Contribute after-tax money now, but enjoy tax-free withdrawals in retirement.

So how do you decide? Here are five key questions to guide your choice:

Choosing The Right IRA

1️⃣ Do I already have a 401(k) or employer-sponsored plan?

If you have a workplace plan and your income is above certain limits, you may not be able to deduct Traditional IRA contributions—making a Roth the better choice.

Deduction starts to phase out at $77,000 ($123,000 for married couples) and disappears completely at $87,000 ($143,000 for couples).

2️⃣ Is my income too high for a Roth IRA?

Roth IRAs have contribution limits. If you earn over $161,000 (single) or $240,000 (married filing jointly), you can’t contribute directly. But there is a workaround—the backdoor Roth IRA—that allows high earners to convert Traditional IRA contributions into a Roth.

3️⃣ Will I need access to my funds before 59½?

Roth IRAs allow you to withdraw contributions (not earnings) anytime, tax- and penalty-free—great for flexibility. Traditional IRAs lock up your funds until retirement (unless you pay a penalty).

4️⃣ Am I in a higher tax bracket now or in retirement?

If you expect to be in a lower tax bracket later, a Traditional IRA helps reduce taxes today and defer them until retirement. If you think you’ll be in a higher tax bracket later, a Roth IRA lets you pay taxes now and withdraw tax-free later.

5️⃣ Do I expect tax rates to increase in the future?

If you expect taxes to increase, a Roth IRA can give you peace of mind with tax-free withdrawals in retirement. If you believe rates will fall, delaying taxes with a Traditional IRA may be the better bet.

Bottom Line

A Roth IRA offers flexibility and tax-free income in retirement, while a Traditional IRA provides upfront tax savings.

Your best choice depends on your current income, tax bracket, and future expectations. If you’re unsure, diversifying between both can hedge your bets and give you options down the road.

Worth The Read 📚

🍗 Twin Peaks is hitting Wall Street, marking the first major restaurant IPO of 2025. With other chains like Panera and Fogo de Chão eyeing the market, this could be a test case for more food IPOs.

💳 X just inked a deal with Visa to bring peer-to-peer payments to the platform, moving Elon Musk’s social network one step closer to becoming a full-fledged financial hub.

📍 Google Maps is making a change—at least in the U.S. The Gulf of Mexico is now labeled the Gulf of America after a Trump executive order. But internationally, the original name remains.

💰 Crypto.com made history by securing full approval under the EU’s MiCA regulation. As the first major exchange to do so, it now has a passport to operate across Europe under a single framework.

🤖 SoftBank is in talks to invest as much as $25 billion in OpenAI, a move that would make it the startup’s largest backer—surpassing Microsoft.

🎭 China’s latest AI chatbot is powerful—until you ask about politics. DeepSeek delivers ChatGPT-level responses but refuses to acknowledge Tiananmen Square, showing the risk of AI under government control.

🛑 More Americans are pledging to buy less—or nothing at all. The "No Buy 2025" movement is taking off on social media, fueled by high prices, rising debt, and a push for financial discipline.

🚑 Ozempic got FDA approval to treat chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetics—marking another major expansion for the blockbuster drug.

The Week Ahead 🔍

Earnings season rolls on with Amazon, Alphabet, and Disney set to report. Plus, fresh data on business activity and the labor market will give investors more clues about where the economy is headed.

Monday

• Earnings from Palantir and Super Micro

• January’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 49.5)

Tuesday

• Earnings from Alphabet (Google), Toyota, Merck, Pepsico, AMD, Amgen, Pfizer, KKR, UBS, Spotify, Ferrari, Apollo, PayPal, BP, Chipotle, EA, Estee Lauder, Fox, Snap, Match Group, and Trump Media

• December’s JOLTs Job Openings (est. 7.8M)

Wednesday

• Earnings from Novo Nordisk, Alibaba, Walt Disney, Qualcomm, Arm Holdings, Boston Scientific, Uber, Fiserv, O’Reilly, MicroStrategy, Aflac, Allstate, and Ford

• January’s ISM Services PMI (est. 54.3)

Thursday

• Earnings from Amazon, Eli Lilly, Astrazeneca, Philip Morris, Honeywell, Bristol-Myers, ConocoPhillips, Intercontinental, Hilton, Cloudflare, Roblox, Yum! Brands, Hershey, Pinterest, and Expedia

Friday

• January’s Non Farm Payrolls (est. 170K)

• January’s Unemployment Rate (est. 4.1%)

• February’s Consumer Sentiment (preliminary est. 71.8)

That’s a wrap! See you next Monday with all the market insights and money tips you need to stay ahead.

Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

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DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.