💰 Maniac Minute: $6.6T Lost—History Says Don’t Panic

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Good morning, Maniacs!

Your 401(k) just lived through a double-feature horror show. In just two days, Trump’s new tariffs triggered the worst selloff since 2020, wiping out $6.6 trillion in market value.

Tech, energy, retail—nobody was spared. Even the Magnificent Seven lost their shine, shedding $1.6T in market cap faster than you can say “reciprocal.”

Still, a few green shoots emerged. Treasury yields and oil prices fell, offering some relief on the inflation front. And the labor market delivered a surprise win, reminding us that not everything is broken.

We’ll break it all down—plus unpack how tariffs ripple through markets, why mortgage rates are falling, and why canned beans are suddenly a hot commodity.

Let’s dive in!

Market Recap 📈

“Take Trump seriously, not literally” was the old playbook. This week proved that literally is back in fashion.

Trump’s sweeping tariffs landed like a sucker punch—and markets clearly weren’t ready. Over two brutal days, U.S. stocks lost more than $6.6 trillion in value, capping the worst week since 2020.

Thursday’s sell-off marked a reaction to the tariffs, as most countries didn’t respond. Then came Friday—and China didn’t flinch, slapping a 34% retaliatory tariff right back on U.S. goods. That sent all 11 S&P 500 sectors deep into the red.

The VIX, Wall Street’s volatility index, promptly spiked to its highest level since April 2020, and the Fear & Greed Index cratered to a 4/100—Extreme Fear territory.

Naturally, investors fled to safety. So demand for bonds surged, pushing the 10-year yield below 4% and pulling mortgage rates down with it. Oil crashed as well, driven by recession fears and OPEC’s plan to ramp production.

And then… a plot twist. The March jobs report came in hot: 228,000 new jobs, crushing expectations. So while traders are suddenly pricing in more rate cuts, the Fed may feel the rush. That said, lagging data has fooled them before.

Bottom line? The market’s panicked—but maybe too panicked.

Historically, when the S&P drops 10% in two days (which has only happened six times since 1950), stocks were significantly higher 1, 3, and 5 years later.

Hold the line, Maniacs. This one’s not over.

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Winners & Losers 🚀

Tariffs wrecked the markets this week, but not everyone got caught in the blast. While some companies were flattened by the fallout, a few found cover in canned beans and bargain bins.

Winners

1. Dollar General ($DG) – Market Cap: $20.4B (+7.6%)

Canned soup supremacy is real.

As tariffs flow through the economy, grocery-heavy retailers like $DG ( ▼ 1.9% ) are suddenly looking bulletproof. With 80% of its sales coming from food—mostly shelf-stable and made-in-America—Dollar General isn’t sweating the import tax.

Plus, if inflation creeps up, consumers are expected to trade down. Dollar General’s low-cost pantry staples are perfectly positioned to absorb the demand shift.

2. Ross Stores ($ROST) – Market Cap: $42.9B (+3.9%)

When prices rise, bargain hunting kicks in.

Discount chains like $ROST ( ▼ 0.69% ) and $TJX ( ▼ 2.61% ) are gearing up for a golden era. Citi upgraded both stocks to buy, predicting a wave of shoppers will abandon full-price retailers in favor of off-price treasure hunts.

An economic slowdown could flood off-pricers with premium inventory from struggling brands—exactly the kind of merchandise Ross thrives on. And since they source most of their goods from U.S. retailers, not overseas, they’re relatively insulated from tariff pressure.

Losers

1. Shopify ($SHOP) – Market Cap: $100.6B (-20.5%)

Shopify took a beating after analysts flagged its high exposure to countries targeted by the latest tariffs. Many sellers on its platform rely on imported goods, putting them squarely in the crosshairs.

That’s bad news for $SHOP ( ▼ 6.56% ) merchants, most of whom already operate in consumer discretionary—the first category to get hit in a downturn. Higher input costs and softer demand could mean fewer transactions, thinner margins, and a platform under pressure.

2. Nike ($NKE) – Market Cap: $84.5B (-9.5%)

Nike shifted much of its production out of China and into Vietnam to sidestep trade tensions. Unfortunately, that strategy blew up when Vietnam was hit with a surprise 46% tariff—leading to a sharp $NKE ( ▲ 3.01% ) selloff.

But on Friday, Trump posted that he had a “very productive call” with Vietnam’s General Secretary, and said both sides were interested in a new trade deal that could reduce tariffs to zero. The glimmer of hope helped Nike—and companies like $LULU ( ▲ 3.15% ) —recover some ground.

Still, this week served as a wake-up call. Many companies had moved production from China to other East Asian countries, assuming the trade war was targeted. Turns out, it might be a global affair.

How To Max Out Parental Tax Savings (Part 2: Deductions) 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦

Tax credits tend to steal the spotlight—but deductions deserve love too. They won’t lower your tax bill dollar-for-dollar like credits, but they will shrink your taxable income, which means more money stays in your pocket.

Here are the top deductions worth checking if you're a parent:

1. Head of Household – Single parents who qualify as head of household can unlock a bigger standard deduction ($21,900 in 2024) and lower tax brackets.

2. Dependent Care FSA – This employer-sponsored account lets you stash up to $5,000 in pre-tax dollars to cover child care. For many families, it offers more bang for your buck than the child care credit.

3. Itemized Medical Deductions – If you itemize and have big out-of-pocket medical costs (hello, orthodontics), anything over 7.5% of your income can be deducted.

4. Student Loan Interest Deduction – You can deduct up to $2,500 in student loan interest per return, whether the loans belong to you or your dependent child.

4. 529 Plans – Think of it like a college-focused Roth IRA. Contributions do not reduce your taxable income (😞), but they do grow tax-free and withdrawals are tax-free when used for eligible education expenses.

Plus, you can use up to $10K per year for K-12 tuition, and roll over up to $35K into a beneficiary’s Roth IRA. No federal limit on contributions, but watch for gift tax if you go over $19K annually.

Just like credits, most of these deductions are income-dependent, and some hinge on the child’s age or education status. So if you think one might apply, dig into the fine print before filing!

Worth The Read 📚

🏠 Mortgage rates sink to 6.6%, reaching their lowest level since October. But with monthly payments near record highs, roughly 70% of Americans still can’t afford a $400K home.

📉 Ray Dalio breaks down how tariffs work—and how they affect growth, interest rates, currencies, and more.

🎬 Trump grants TikTok 75-day reprieve, as he works with China to “close the deal.”

🇺🇸 Another U.S. debt downgrade may be coming, with Moody’s sounding the alarm on ballooning deficits—and interest payments.

🪪 REAL ID deadline sparks DMV chaos, with hours-long lines, scalpers selling appointments, and a nationwide scramble to get compliant before May 7.

🌄 Luxury hotels meet national parks, offering suites with telescopes, salt spas, and steakhouse menus. If you need an escape plan, this is it.

Where the People in the News Get Their News

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The Week Ahead 🔍

CPI lands Thursday, PPI on Friday, and the Fed’s March minutes drop midweek to show what policymakers were thinking before tariffs rocked the market. Big bank earnings round things out—JPM, WF, and BlackRock all report Friday.

Monday

• Earnings from Levi Strauss

Tuesday

• No major reports

Wednesday

• Earnings from Constellation Brands and Delta Air Lines

• March FOMC Minutes

Thursday

• Earnings from CarMax and Walgreens

• March Consumer Price Index (est. 0.1% MoM, 2.6% YoY)

• March Core CPI (est. 0.3% MoM, 3.0% YoY)

Friday

• Earnings from J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Progressive, BlackRock, and BNY Mellon

• March Producer Price Index (est. 0.2% MoM, 3.3% YoY)

• April Consumer Sentiment (preliminary est. 54.5)

That’s it for today! If you made it this far, you’re exactly why I do this.

All I ask for? A little feedback. Your comments, questions, and suggestions help me improve—and shape future editions.

Just hit reply or leave a quick review below. It helps more than you know.

Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.