💰 Maniac Minute: The Tale of Two Constellations

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Good morning, Maniacs!

Whispers of a 2025 Fed rate hike are back in the air after Friday’s jobs report showed that the labor market is powering ahead. Strong job growth and sticky inflation pushed yields higher, sending markets into a tailspin.

In other news, TikTok duked it out in front of the Supreme Court, oil prices hit their highest levels in three months, and the IRS has a surprise for taxpayers in 25 states.

Let’s dive into the action!

Market Recap 📈

Major indices ended the week in the red, with all three down about 2%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 took a 3.5% tumble. Most of the damage came after Friday’s jobs report revealed the U.S. added over 250,000 new positions in December, dropping unemployment to 4.1%.

While the numbers look great on paper, they also squashed any near-term hopes for Fed rate cuts. Traders now see no easing before May.

The report sent 10-year Treasury yields soaring to their highest levels since 2007 (excluding 2023’s brief spike). Rate-sensitive stocks bore the brunt of the pain, with the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF ($XHB) falling nearly 2%.

Elsewhere, TikTok made its case to the Supreme Court, but skeptical justices seem willing to let its U.S. ban stand. Kevin O’Leary, Shark Tank’s most opportunistic investor, took the chance to float a $20 billion bid for TikTok’s U.S. assets.

Meanwhile, oil prices surged closer to $80 a barrel after the U.S. announced sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called the move a “sweeping action” against Russia’s war funding.

Lastly, the IRS expanded its Direct File program to taxpayers in 25 states, up from 12 in last year’s pilot. Filing taxes without third-party software? Sounds like a win—unless you own TurboTax stock.

P.S. It’s your last chance to take our 2-minute 2025 Prediction Survey. Share your guesses for a shot at being named THE Money Maniac of the Year!

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Winners & Losers 🚀

Who’s climbing the leaderboard, and who’s stuck at the bottom? Let’s break down this week’s biggest movers across the market.

Winners

1. Walgreens Boots ($WBA) – Market Cap: $10.2B (+23.8%)

Walgreens saw its biggest stock surge in 45 years after posting $39.5 billion in quarterly revenue and $0.51 in adjusted earnings per share, crushing Wall Street estimates. Investors also cheered the planned divestiture of VillageMD, its underperforming healthcare business, which has been a drag on earnings.

Despite ongoing challenges, including the planned closure of 1,200 underperforming stores, early turnaround efforts appear promising.

2. Constellation Energy ($CEG) – Market Cap: $95.5B (+20.9%)

Constellation Energy—back in the spotlight for the second week running—turned heads with its $16.4 billion acquisition of Calpine, plus $12.7 billion in assumed debt. The deal creates the largest U.S. power station fleet, blending Constellation’s zero-emission nuclear expertise with Calpine’s natural gas and geothermal operations.

Investors welcomed the news, boosting Constellation’s market cap by ~$17 billion. The stock is now up 163% over the past year, thanks to the AI-driven surge in energy demand.

3. Micron Technology ($MU) – Market Cap: $110.7B (+10.5%)

Micron Technology had a standout week after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang spotlighted its memory chips in the new RTX 50 gaming GPUs. Nvidia, now Micron’s largest customer, accounts for 13% of its revenue.

To meet skyrocketing demand, the company also announced a $7 billion investment in a Singapore chip plant. With AI as its tailwind, Micron is riding high as one of the S&P 500’s top performers of the year.

Losers

1. Constellation Brands ($STZ) – Market Cap: $33.0B (-18.1%)

Constellation Brands faced a tough week as declining wine and spirits sales overshadowed strong beer performance from Modelo and Corona. Inflation-hit consumers are spending less, and new cancer warnings on alcohol won’t help.

Adding to the pain, the company lowered its fiscal-year outlook. With 86% of sales tied to Mexican imports, looming tariffs could force price hikes and further weigh on demand.

2. Palantir Technologies ($PLTR) – Market Cap: $153.2B (-15.8%)

Palantir’s stock tumbled as insiders cashed out and Morgan Stanley slapped it with an underweight rating. After a jaw-dropping 340% rally last year, analysts warn the stock’s valuation is running on fumes.

While Palantir remains a leader in AI tech, much of its recent growth has been driven by hype and retail trading momentum. In short, Palantir’s stock could face further turbulence, even with its strong long-term prospects.

Business Cycle Investing Made Simple 💰

2025 investing tip: Follow the business cycle’s lead.

Fidelity sees the U.S. economy transitioning between mid- and late-cycle stages, and their research highlights which sectors might shine—or stumble—this year.

2024 Recap

• The S&P 500 surged 23%, driven by tech and communication services.

• Large caps reigned supreme, outperforming mid- and small-cap stocks once again.

2025 Outlook

• Communication services and energy look strong, as they’ve historically outperformed during this phase of the cycle.

• Consumer discretionary and materials may lag.

• Expect slower but steady gains, with inflation risks lingering if the economy heats up.

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro, advises keeping a close eye on inflation trends and policy shifts under the new administration.

The play? Stick with sectors positioned to outperform and let the business cycle work its magic.

Worth The Read 📚

💰 21 states increased their minimum wage this month, with Washington leading at $16.66/hour. Over 9 million workers got a raise—see how your state compares.

⚖️ Sam Altman faces legal allegations from his sister in a Missouri lawsuit. The OpenAI CEO denies the claims, calling them “utterly untrue.” Here's what both sides are saying.

🏠 Top 10 cities for first-time buyers offer homes under $250K. While Florida claims three spots, affordable gems like Harrisburg, PA top the list.

🛒 Big retail’s market domination grows as Walmart, Amazon, and Costco claim 17% of U.S. retail sales. Smaller retailers are struggling to keep up—here’s why the gap keeps widening.

📉 The Fed worries about inflation under Trump’s trade and immigration policies. December’s minutes reveal why officials may pause rate cuts.

🎙️ Podcast assistant side hustles are booming in 2025, with pay reaching $100/hour. From guest booking to editing, discover how to tap into this growing field.

💳 The pursuit of a perfect credit score took one Texan five years to achieve 850. Learn how he gamed the system—and why he now questions the effort.

🌿 From prison to profit, Coss Marte now owns one of NYC’s first legal cannabis dispensaries. His journey from incarceration to entrepreneur is reshaping an industry.

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The Week Ahead 🔍

The first busy week of 2025 is here! Major banks are reporting, CPI is looming, and housing data could throw a curveball. Consider this your wake-up call: the new year hustle is officially on.

Monday

• Earnings from KB Home

Tuesday

• December’s Producer Price Index (est. 0.3% MoM)

Wednesday

• Earnings from J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Bank of NY Mellon

• December’s Consumer Price Index (est. 0.3% MoM, 3.3% YoY)

Thursday

• Earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor, UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial, and U.S. Bankcorp

• December’s Retail Sales (est. 0.5% MoM)

Friday

• Earnings from Truist Financial and Schlumberger

• December’s Housing Starts (est. 1.31 million)

• December’s Building Permits (est. 1.48 million)

That’s a wrap! See you next Monday with all the market insights and money tips you need to stay ahead.

Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

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DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.