💰 Maniac Minute: Shopify’s Sneaky Index Play

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Good morning, Maniacs!

The losing streak is over—stocks just logged their first green week in a month. It’s not quite time to pop champagne, but at least we’re no longer free-falling.

With the Fed’s latest decision in the books and most earnings in the rearview, investors are shifting focus to the next big catalyst: the April 2nd reciprocal tariff deadline.

Meanwhile, the market is wrestling with a bigger question—was the recent pullback just a spring slowdown, or are we inching toward a full-blown recession? Even the gloomiest forecasters put the odds below 50%, but the debate is heating up.

Let’s dive in!

Market Recap 📈

After four straight weeks of bleeding, U.S. stocks finally turned green across the board. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, and even the sleepy ol’ Russell 2000 all notched gains—breaking the slump just in time for spring.

The Fed held rates steady (no surprise there), but Treasuries kept sliding anyway. The 10-year yield dipped again, raising eyebrows and sparking fresh debates:

• Bullish take: Less fear of a U.S. default = greater demand for bonds = lower yields.

• Bearish take: Slower growth ahead = greater demand for bonds = lower yields.

• Perhaps reality lies somewhere in the middle…

Either way, the bond market doesn’t seem too spooked about long-term inflation. That’s a signal in itself.

Meanwhile, gold decisively crossed the $3,000 threshold. Shoutout to the 44% of voters who called this in our 2025 Prediction Survey.

Visionaries like Travis B., Lynn F., and John K.—take your victory laps.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, sat quietly in the corner and did... absolutely nothing. Flat on the week. No drama. No headlines. Who even are you, Bitcoin?

Big Tech Has Spent Billions Acquiring AI Smart Home Startups

The pattern is clear: when innovative companies successfully integrate AI into everyday products, tech giants pay billions to acquire them.

Google paid $3.2B for Nest.
Amazon spent $1.2B on Ring.
Generac spent $770M on EcoBee.

Now, a new AI-powered smart home company is following their exact path to acquisition—but is still available to everyday investors at just $1.90 per share.

With proprietary technology that connects window coverings to all major AI ecosystems, this startup has achieved what big tech wants most: seamless AI integration into daily home life.

Over 10 patents, 200% year-over-year growth, and a forecast to 5x revenue this year — this company is moving fast to seize the smart home opportunity.

The acquisition pattern is predictable. The opportunity to get in before it happens is not.

INVEST BEFORE BIG TECH MAKES THEIR MOVE

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Winners & Losers 🚀

It was a week of rebounds and reversals! Boeing’s fortunes took flight, Shopify shook things up for index appeal, and two consumer giants tripped over their own expectations.

Winners

1. Boeing ($BA) – Market Cap: $134.0B (+10.1%)

Boeing finally caught a tailwind. The aerospace giant landed the Pentagon’s next-gen fighter jet contract—beating out Lockheed Martin ($LMT) and securing a deal estimated north of $50 billion. Trump called Boeing’s F-47, which will replace Lockheed’s F-22, the “most lethal aircraft ever built.” Markets liked the sound of that.

The win couldn’t have come at a better time. After months of safety scandals and a door plug fiasco, Boeing badly needed a narrative shift. CFO Brian West added some fuel, telling investors that cash flow is “off to a pretty good start” this year. Cue the rally.

2. Shopify ($SHOP) – Market Cap: $135.2B (+9.9%)

Shopify is trading up—literally. The e-commerce powerhouse is leaving the NYSE for the Nasdaq, setting itself up for potential inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. That would mean big inflows from index funds like $QQQ, and Wall Street knows it.

Shares also popped after announcing a new AI acquisition, Vantage Discovery, which enhances on-site search and personalization for retailers. Add in 26% YoY revenue growth and a swing to positive operating income, and Shopify isn’t just optimizing—it’s accelerating.

Losers

1. Nike ($NKE) – Market Cap: $100.5B (-5.2%)

Nike just… isn’t doing it anymore. The once-dominant sneaker giant beat earnings estimates but warned of tougher days ahead. Q4 sales are expected to fall in the low double digits—dragged down by a 17% plunge in China.

CEO Elliott Hill is trying to put sport back at the brand’s core, but Wall Street is focused on the swoosh’s fading momentum. Its splashy SKIMS collab and Super Bowl ad targeting female athletes show a pivot in progress—but investors are still waiting for the innovation engine to kick back into gear.

2. FedEx ($FDX) – Market Cap: $55.2B (-4.9%)

FedEx missed the mark and slashed its full-year profit forecast, blaming weak business demand. Management thinks businesses are in wait-and-see mode—holding back on spending while trade tensions and policy shifts play out.

Revenue is now expected to dip year over year, prompting at least one analyst to slap on a “Sell” rating. Even rival UPS took a hit. For a company built on smooth global trade, there seems to be a lot of turbulence ahead.

SBA Takes Over Student Loans 🎓

Roughly 45 million Americans owe a combined $1.7 trillion in federal student loans.

On Friday, many of them got a shock: President Trump signed an executive order to dismantle the Department of Education—the agency that manages all that debt.

Naturally, borrowers are scrambling for answers. Here’s what we know so far:

Do I still owe my loans?

Yes. Nothing changes about your repayment terms—at least not yet. Even if the agency closes, the obligation remains.

So what’s changing, then?

Loan management is being handed off to the Small Business Administration (SBA). However, the SBA is already undergoing staffing cuts of its own. That has raised some concerns about customer service, application processing, and error tracking.

What about forgiveness and income-driven repayment?

The courts already froze Biden’s SAVE plan, and now other income-based plans are paused for at least three months. Trump also signed an order targeting Public Service Loan Forgiveness, hinting that more restrictions could be coming.

He did clarify that Pell Grants, Title 1, and special education funding will be preserved, but reassigned to other departments.

What should I do right now?

✅ Confirm your loan servicer has your correct contact info
✅ Keep personal records of every payment
✅ Track forgiveness progress yourself—don’t rely on them to do it
✅ Stay alert and proactive: missed updates could cost you

The loan terms aren’t changing (yet)—but the system around them is. In times like these, the best move is to stay organized and maybe... check your student loan login. Just in case.

Worth The Read 📚

📊 30 charts show how COVID changed everything, from the “Great Resignation” to alcohol sales, crime trends, and even used car prices.

🧠 Small tech stocks are making noise as investors tire of the Magnificent 7. One expert thinks we’re entering a new renaissance—if you know where to look.

👀 Commerce Secretary Lutnick says Trump's tariffs are "worth it," even if they trigger a recession.

🏭 Nvidia’s CEO says $300B+ is coming, as the company plans to manufacture in the U.S. at scale to dodge geopolitical risk and future tariffs.

📍 The best cities for jobs and cheap housing might not be where you expect—three of the top five are in Alabama.

🌍 Only seven countries meet WHO air quality guidelines. A new report finds nearly every country on Earth has dirtier air than doctors recommend breathing.

The Week Ahead 🔍

It’s a week for tea leaf reading! We’ll see if durable goods orders hold up under tariff pressure, whether consumers are feeling confident, and if the Fed’s preferred inflation reading (Core PCE) continues to cool off. With so much in flux, every stat has the potential to stir things up.

Monday

• Earnings from Oklo

Tuesday

• Earnings from McCormick and GameStop

• January Case-Shiller Home Price Index (est. 4.4%)

• March Consumer Confidence (est. 95.0)

Wednesday

• Earnings from Cintas, Paychex, Dollar Tree, and Chewy

• February Durable Goods Orders (est. -0.7%)

Thursday

• Earnings from Lululemon and Walgreens

• Q4 GDP Growth Rate (final est. 2.3%)

Friday

• February PCE Index (est. 0.3% MoM, 2.5% YoY)

• February Core PCE Index (est. 0.3% MoM, 2.7% YoY)

• February Personal Income (est. 0.4%)

• February Personal Spending (est. 0.6%)

That’s a wrap! See you next Monday with all the market insights and money tips you need to stay ahead.

Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

P.S. Have feedback, burning questions, or just want to say hi? Reply directly to this email!

DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.