💰 Maniac Minute: Sell In May & Go Away?

In partnership with

Good morning, Maniacs!

This weekend featured more diplomacy than a G20 summit.

The U.S. helped broker a cease-fire between India and Pakistan, halting the worst flare-up in two decades. Plus, the administration extended talks with China through Sunday. No major breakthroughs yet, but after April’s chaos, even a little calm feels like a win.

Markets cooled down too. The S&P slipped slightly, Powell stood pat, and the “rate cut in June” crowd lost some steam.

Meanwhile, Buffett dropped wisdom (and the mic), Shopify hit a tariff wall, and Paul Tudor Jones warned that AI could pose an existential threat in our lifetime. Big words from a big name.

Let’s dive in! 👇

Market Recap 📈

The S&P 500 dipped 0.5%, snapping its historic winning streak but managing to hold above key levels as volatility cooled.

A flurry of Fed commentary and geopolitical headlines kept investors on edge, but with earnings season winding down and no major shocks, markets largely drifted sideways.

The Fed held rates steady as expected, but traders are starting to hedge their bets. The 10-year yield crept up to 4.38%—a quiet nod that a June cut is looking less likely.

Still, the week wasn’t dull.

Bitcoin ripped past $100K after a surprise U.K. trade deal and warmer U.S.-China signals lit a fire under risk assets. Trump teased more “great” deals in the works and floated dialing China tariffs down to 80%, boosting hopes of de-escalation.

Oil rebounded after two straight weekly losses, lifted by trade optimism and the chance of broader global growth. But the mood turned cautious after Saturday’s 10-hour U.S.-China meeting ended with no overt signs of progress.

Gold hitting record highs

The price of gold keeps heating up. If the record-breaking year of 2024 wasn't enough, gold hit a major historic 2025 milestone by crossing the $3,000/ounce threshold!

Here are 3 Key Reasons:

1. Looming economic & political uncertainty

2. Increasing central bank demand

3. Rising National Debt - over $36 Trillion

So, could gold surge even higher?

According to a recent statement from Jeffrey Gundlach, famed American business man and investor… “Gold continues its bull market that we’ve been talking about for a couple of years, ever since it was down to $1,800.” He expects gold to reach $4,000/oz.

Is it time you learn more about precious metals?

Get all the answers in your free 2025 Gold & Silver Kit. Plus, if you request your free kit today, you could qualify for up to 10% Instant Match in Bonus Silver*.

Learn more >>

_{*Offer valid on qualified orders of Goldco premium products only. Receive up to 10% in free silver based on purchase amount; cannot be combined with other offers. Additional terms apply—see your customer agreement or contact your representative for details.}

Winners & Losers 🚀

Lyft hit the gas, Skechers found an off-ramp, and Shopify hit a tariff-sized pothole. Meanwhile, Google’s AI fears just got real—thanks to Eddy Cue, Apple’s services chief.

Winners

1. Lyft ($LYFT) – Market Cap: $7.0B (+31.6%)

Lyft $LYFT ( ▲ 28.08% ) hit a five-month high after expanding its buyback plan to $750M, prompting Engine Capital to end its activist push. Gross bookings rose 13%, rides jumped 16%, and CEO David Risher told CNBC he’s not seeing “anything to worry about” with consumers. Investors liked what they heard, and Lyft notched its best day since February 2024.

2. Sketchers ($SKX) – Market Cap: $9.2B (+24.5%)

After 26 years on public markets, Skechers $SKX ( ▲ 0.05% ) is going private. The family-run shoe brand accepted a $9.42B buyout from 3G Capital, valuing shares at $63 each—a 28% premium to the pre-announcement price. With a large portion of its U.S. inventory imported from China, the deal offers a timely exit amid growing tariff pressure.

Shares jumped just below the $63 offer, reflecting the small risk of the transaction not closing. They’re expected to trade near that level until the deal finalizes in Q3.

Losers

1. Shopify ($SHOP) – Market Cap: $119.9B (-7.5%)

Shopify $SHOP ( ▼ 2.37% ) grew revenue 27% and gross merchandise volume (a.k.a. GMV, or how much its customers sell through the platform) 23%. But a surprise $682M net loss and cautious Q2 outlook sent shares sliding. The biggest issue? Tariffs.

Trump’s push to eliminate duty-free treatment for sub-$800 imports hits hard at Shopify’s merchant base, especially the 76% of China-based sellers who rely on U.S. buyers. That shift could pressure GMV growth and weigh on future earnings.

2. Alphabet ($GOOG/GOOGL) – Market Cap: $1.86T (-6.9%)

After losing an antitrust trial over its search dominance, Alphabet $GOOG ( ▼ 0.88% ) now faces potential DOJ penalties. One proposed remedy is a ban on payments to Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.53% ) for default search placement—a channel where over 50% of U.S. searches begin.

Apple exec Eddy Cue, who has an incentive to downplay Google’s strength, testified that Safari searches declined in April. He attributed the drop to growing adoption of AI tools like ChatGPT and Perplexity, which Apple is considering integrating into Safari.

Although Google denies any market share loss, investors weren’t buying it.

5 Golden Rules From The King Of Compounding 👑

Warren Buffett didn’t just beat the market—he obliterated it.

Under his leadership, Berkshire Hathaway returned 5,502,284%, turning modest investments into generational wealth. (The S&P 500, by comparison? Just 39,054%.)

Now, after announcing his retirement at year-end, the Oracle of Omaha leaves behind a towering legacy and a timeless philosophy.

In his own words, here’s what Buffett wants you to remember.

1. Protect The Downside First 🔒

• “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.”

• “Never invest in a business you cannot understand.”

Buffett’s #1 priority wasn’t making money—it was not losing it. He believed protecting capital is the foundation of great investing.

That’s why he avoided debt, stayed within his circle of competence, and bet big only when the odds were overwhelmingly in his favor.

• “Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.”

However, Buffett wasn’t afraid of concentration. He held that knowing what you own matters more than owning everything.

2. Only Swing At Fat Pitches ⚾

• “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

• “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

Buffett avoided complexity. He didn’t chase hype or hot trends—he waited for clear, simple, high-quality businesses trading below their worth.

• “Every now and again you get an extraordinary opportunity. Most of the time, you don’t.”

• “Patience is not a constant asset or liability. You don’t want to be patient when the time comes to act.”

But patience isn’t about doing nothing—it’s about waiting for an edge, and striking only when you have it.

3. Check Your Emotions At The Door 🧠

• “People have emotions. But you have to check them at the door when you invest.”

• “If it makes a difference to you whether your stocks are down 15% or not, you need a different investment philosophy.”

• “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

Buffett knew that emotional control is the true edge most investors lack. He didn’t let drawdowns shake his conviction. And when fear ran rampant, he went shopping.

4. Play The Long Game ⌛

• “Our favorite holding period is forever.”

• “If you aren’t thinking about owning a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”

• “Successful investing takes time, discipline, and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort… you can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.”

Buffett understood that wealth is built slowly and lost quickly. He didn’t try to time the market. He built portfolios like forests, not fireworks.

• “Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”

5. Focus On What Matters 🛠️

• “We are not in the business of solving unsolvable problems.”

• “Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.”

• “My successor will need… the ability to fight off the ABCs of business decay, which are arrogance, bureaucracy, and complacency.”

Buffett avoided messes—whether it was broken business models, bloated management teams, or sunk-cost thinking. The key is knowing when to wait and when to walk away.

Greatness isn’t built in a week. It’s compounded over decades. Buffett’s career—and his rules—are proof.

Did I miss your favorite Buffett-ism? Reply and let me know which one you live by!

Worth The Read 📚

📅 Should you sell in May? Fidelity breaks down why calendar trading rules are flawed—and what to watch instead as tariffs, rates, and earnings dominate the narrative.

🏠 Family offices are piling into real estate, betting on stability and long-term gains as stocks wobble and traditional lenders retreat.

🤖 Paul Tudor Jones says AI could end us, warning that artificial intelligence poses an existential threat in our lifetime during a sobering CNBC interview.

🧑‍🎓 Fastest-growing roles for new grads include AI engineer, UX researcher, and data analyst, according to LinkedIn’s latest career report.

📉 Student loan garnishments resume as the Trump administration begins clawing back wages and Social Security from 5.3 million borrowers in default, after a five-year pause.

💣 M&A activity plunges to 20-year lows, as Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff blitz scares off dealmakers and sidelines corporate buyers across the globe.

📚 60 years of Berkshire memories mark Buffett’s swan song. From 12 attendees to 40,000+, the “Woodstock for Capitalists” has become a rite of passage for investors.

📈 Bill Ackman wants to build the next Berkshire, starting with a $900M bet on Howard Hughes Holdings and a blueprint for a modern-day investment empire.

Get Matched With A Financial Advisor Today (For Free)

Worried about whether your savings are on track, when you can retire, or how taxes might affect your plans?

Money Pickle makes it easy to connect with a vetted financial advisor—on your terms, at your pace, and totally free.

Just answer a few quick questions, book a video call, and get personalized guidance on the stuff that matters most: retirement, investments, taxes, and beyond.

No pressure. No sales pitch. Just real advice to move your money forward.

Find your free financial match today →

The Week Ahead 🔍

It’s a big week for consumer check-ins. CPI, retail sales, and Walmart earnings all drop, giving markets a fresh read on spending and sentiment.

Monday

• Earnings from Fox

• April U.S. Federal Budget (est. $235.0B)

Tuesday

• Earnings from Sony, JD.com, On, Oklo, Boot Barn, and Under Armour

• April Consumer Price Index (est. 0.3% MoM, 2.6% YoY)

• April Core CPI (est. 0.2% MoM, 2.8% YoY)

Wednesday

• Earnings from Cisco and CoreWeave

Thursday

• Earnings from Walmart, Alibaba, Deere, Applied Materials, Take-Two, Cava, Birkenstock, and Dillard’s

• April Producer Price Index (est. 0.2% MoM, 3.1% YoY)

• April Retail Sales (est. -0.8% MoM, 1.1% YoY)

Friday

• April Housing Starts (est. 1.31M)

• April Building Permits (preliminary est. 1.45M)

• May Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary est. 52.0)

That’s it for today! If you made it this far, you’re exactly why I do this.

All I ask for? A little feedback. Your comments, questions, and suggestions help me improve—and shape future editions.

Just hit reply or leave a quick review below. It helps more than you know.

Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.