The Santa Rally Is Here and 2025 Scorecards Are In 🎅

Twelve months ago, you Maniacs made bold calls about the economy, markets, and where the world was headed. Now the scorecards are in... and some of you deserve a victory lap.

Good morning, Maniacs!

Traders wait all year for the Santa Claus Rally, the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the next. And as of this week, we’re officially in the thick of it.

With jolly spirits and lighter trading volume, this stretch has historically averaged a 1.3% return, with stocks finishing higher nearly 80% of the time.

Even Goldman thinks the sleigh might be warming up: “Barring any major shocks, it will be hard to fight the overwhelmingly positive seasonal period we are entering.” 🎅📈

Today is a short, holiday edition (and the final send of 2025), so you can get back to leftovers, couch time, and strategically avoiding email until January.

Just two quick reflections before we turn the page:

  • How your 2025 predictions actually shook out

  • And where you think 2026 is headed next

Grab some eggnog, lock in your 2026 calls, and let’s finish strong. 👇

OUR PARTNER: MASTERWORKS

What investment is rudimentary for billionaires but ‘revolutionary’ for 70,571+ investors entering 2026?

Imagine this. You open your phone to an alert. It says, “you spent $236,000,000 more this month than you did last month.”

If you were the top bidder at Sotheby’s fall auctions, it could be reality.

Sounds crazy, right? But when the ultra-wealthy spend staggering amounts on blue-chip art, it’s not just for decoration.

The scarcity of these treasured artworks has helped drive their prices, in exceptional cases, to thin-air heights, without moving in lockstep with other asset classes.

The contemporary and post war segments have even outpaced the S&P 500 overall since 1995.*

Now, over 70,000 people have invested $1.2 billion+ across 500 iconic artworks featuring Banksy, Basquiat, Picasso, and more.

How? You don’t need Medici money to invest in multimillion dollar artworks with Masterworks.

Thousands of members have gotten annualized net returns like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8% from 26 sales to date.

*Based on Masterworks data. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd

YEAR IN REVIEW
How Maniacs Predicted 2025 🔍

Twelve months ago, you Maniacs made bold calls about the economy, markets, and where the world was headed.

Now the scorecards are in… and some of you deserve a victory lap.

Where We Absolutely Nailed It

  • Recession odds: 68% said no recession. Correct.

  • Inflation: 69% said core PCE would not fall below 2%. Correct again (~2.8%).

  • Unemployment: 72% predicted unemployment would stay below 5% (currently ~4.6%).

  • Top performing sector: 38% picked tech. It was the most popular vote, and the right one.

Where Only a Few Saw It Coming

  • Fed rate cuts: Just 6% of you called three cuts.

  • Highest-valued company: Only three readers — Corinna Summersett, David Goodall, and Jim Henderson — chose Nvidia. Legendary pick.

  • International leader: Nobody picked Korea… whose stock market is up 80% YTD, thanks to Samsung (+110%) and SK Hynix (+230%).

Where We Were… Close

  • GDP growth: Only 31% predicted the current 2–2.5% range. Most expected 1–2%.

  • Federal deficit: 56% thought the deficit/GDP would increase, but it actually fell from 6.4% to 5.5%.

  • S&P performance:

    • 56% expected a 0-10% rise.

    • 38% expected a 10-20% rise.

    • The index is now up 17%, boosted by the Mag 7, which 63% correctly expected to outperform.

  • Small-cap vs. large-cap: Readers expected small-cap growth stocks to outperform, but large-cap growth stocks came out ahead.

  • Bitcoin & gold: 56% correctly said BTC would not hit $150K. Meanwhile, gold blew past expectations, smashing well past $3,000, as 44% had predicted.

YEAR AHEAD
How Maniacs See 2026 🔮

The 2026 Crystal Ball Challenge is officially live, and I want to hear from you!

This is your chance to call your shot on what happens next across the economy, the markets, and a few wildcards. It’s a quick, two-minute survey that’s all about your gut feelings.

Throughout the year, I’ll track the results, highlight the sharpest calls, and call out emerging trends.

Plus, when 2026 wraps up, the reader with the strongest scorecard earns the ultimate title: THE Money Maniac of 2026.

OUR PARTNER: ROKU

Shoppers are adding to cart for the holidays

Over the next year, Roku predicts that 100% of the streaming audience will see ads. For growth marketers in 2026, CTV will remain an important “safe space” as AI creates widespread disruption in the search and social channels. Plus, easier access to self-serve CTV ad buying tools and targeting options will lead to a surge in locally-targeted streaming campaigns.

Read our guide to find out why growth marketers should make sure CTV is part of their 2026 media mix.

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DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

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