💰 5 Fact Friday: How To Add 7 Years To Your Retirement

ECONOMY
1. Thanksgiving By The Numbers 🦃

Thanksgiving isn’t just about family and food—it’s a snapshot of America’s quirks, habits, and spending power. From the dinner table to the gas pump, here’s what this year looks like:

Cheaper Travel, Finally

Gas prices are giving holiday road trippers something to be thankful for, hitting their lowest levels since 2001. At $3.07 per gallon, with 22 states below $3, Thanksgiving travel is now 7.2% cheaper than last year.

That’s an extra $5 in savings per fill-up—enough to skip the pumpkin vs. pecan pie debate and just get both.

Feast For Less

Hosting dinner this year? The average Thanksgiving meal for ten costs $58.08, down 5% from 2023. The average turkey price dropped to $25.67, even with the smallest flock since 1985.

The rest of the meal—11 staples like stuffing and rolls—also got a bit cheaper this year. Still, groceries are 22% more expensive than they were in January 2021, so it’s not all gravy.

Brown Friday

The day after Thanksgiving isn’t just for shoppers—it’s the busiest day of the year for plumbers too! Let’s just say not all Thanksgiving leftovers go where they should, and garbage disposals aren’t big fans of turkey grease.

Through it all Thanksgiving reminds us that even as prices rise and pipes clog, the real constants are family, food, and a little bit of chaos.

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MARKETS
2. 2025 Market Predictions 🔮

Wall Street’s crystal ball for 2025 is coming into focus, and the S&P 500 is the star of the show. Analysts are almost universally targeting modest growth for the index, with most forecasts clustered around a 10-14% gain.

Translation? The S&P could finish next year at 6,500–6,700, up from today’s ~5,950.

The Forecasts

6,500: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both project a 10% gain. Goldman predicts 11% EPS growth and reduced outperformance from the Magnificent Seven. Morgan Stanley forecasts 13% EPS growth but warns of “wider-than-normal risks” post-election.

6,600: UBS and Evercore predict a 12% gain. UBS credits optimism surrounding tax cuts and deregulation, while Evercore believes the current bull market is still in its infancy.

6,700: BMO Capital Markets expects a 14% gain as part of the ongoing “20–25-year secular bull market.”

7,000: Yardeni Research stands out with an 18% target, citing the “pro-business” administration. However, they also warn of a potential melt-up that could lead to a meltdown.

Key Variables

1. Fed Policy: Analysts anticipate rate cuts to spur investment, especially benefiting small caps, which are more reliant on borrowing.

2. Earnings Growth: Strong EPS growth is expected, fueled in part by gains in productivity from AI adoption.

3. The Trump Bump: Deregulation is expected to support business growth, while a (potential) new FTC chair could pave the way for increased M&A activity.

Why aren’t predictions more spread out?

Because no one wants to be that guy—the one who overhypes a bull case or misses a bear market. As a result, most targets hug the historical average annual return of ~10%.

Still, the spread of possibilities is worth noting. Morgan Stanley’s bull case stretches to 7,400 (a 24% gain!), while their bear case plunges to 4,600 (a 23% drop).

That range is the ultimate reminder: predictions are just educated guesses, and markets love proving everyone wrong.

TAX
3. The Roth Conversion Window 🗓️

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which lowered income tax rates, is set to expire on December 31, 2025. However, with Trump’s re-election, many anticipate these lower rates could be extended, giving retirees additional time to capitalize on Roth IRA conversions.

Here’s the strategy: Convert funds from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, pay taxes now at today’s rates, and secure tax-free growth and withdrawals forever.

Essentially, you’re “locking in” lower tax rates. This is especially wise given the nation’s debt crisis, which could pressure lawmakers to raise taxes in the future.

How Powerful Is This?

William Reichenstein of T. Rowe Price explains:

“By drawing down your nest egg tax-efficiently in retirement, you can make a portfolio last up to seven years longer.”

The TCJA opened the door to this strategy by both raising income thresholds and cutting tax rates (e.g., 15% to 12%, 25% to 22%).

Why Act Soon?

1. The Extension Isn’t Guaranteed: The TCJA rates may sunset in 2026, reverting to higher tax brackets.

2. Pre-RMD Opportunity: Retirees in lower tax brackets, especially before Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) begin at age 73, have a rare window of opportunity. RMDs increase taxable income, which can make future conversions more costly.

3. Estate Planning Perks: Roth IRAs have no RMDs, allowing you to leave tax-free assets for heirs or a surviving spouse, who might face higher tax rates as a single filer.

Roth conversions have surged among people in their 60s—more than tripling between 2017 and 2020. Whether or not the TCJA extension becomes reality, acting during this low-tax era could add years to your portfolio’s life and protect your heirs from future tax burdens.

CRYPTO
4. ETF Options Power Bitcoin’s Climb ⚡

Another week, another crypto milestone.

On Tuesday, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) options debuted with a bang, racking up $1.9 billion in notional volume. Bloomberg called it “unheard of for day one.”

For comparison, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) logged $5 billion in notional exposure the same day. But IBIT’s strong start highlights Bitcoin’s growing appeal among institutional investors.

Bitcoin is no longer just the domain of tech aficionados, libertarians, and crypto bros—it’s going mainstream.

Most of Tuesday’s trades were call options, signaling that investors are betting on Bitcoin’s price climbing even higher. So far, they’re on the money—Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $99,389 Thursday evening.

This launch marks another major step in Bitcoin’s evolution into a legitimate financial asset. Options introduce tools for risk management and speculation, expanding Bitcoin’s appeal to institutions and bridging the gap between crypto and TradFi (traditional finance).

The Big Picture

The potential here is massive. Derivatives markets are often 10–20x larger than their underlying assets.

A thriving Bitcoin ETF options market could fuel liquidity, stabilize prices, and—yes—potentially drive Bitcoin even higher. Time will tell, but the initial reaction is quite promising.

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STOCKS
5. Guess Today’s Mystery Stock 🕵️‍♂️

Here are five clues about a company that’s become synonymous with Bitcoin and clever fundraising strategies:

1. This company, which recently broke into the top 100 U.S. publicly traded companies, owns an eye-popping 331,200 Bitcoin. The stash is worth ~$30 billion, making it the largest institutional holder of the cryptocurrency.

2. Despite its Bitcoin stockpile, the company’s enterprise value of $80 billion raises eyebrows. Its money-losing software business can only account for a tiny fraction of this $50 billion valuation gap.

3. To fund its Bitcoin purchases, the company issues convertible debt at 0% interest—effectively selling equity (with future dilution) to load up on more cryptocurrency.

4. The stock has soared over 500% this year, more than doubling Nvidia’s performance. This meteoric rise has prompted Citron Research to short the stock, calling its valuation “detached from BTC fundamentals.”

5. The company’s co-founder famously lost $6 billion in a single day during the dot-com bubble burst, fueling ongoing questions about his high-risk strategy.

Got a guess? Tap here to reveal the answer → 

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