💰 Maniac Minute: The Recession Alarm Just Went Off

In partnership with

Good morning, Maniacs!

February ended with a thud. The Nasdaq slid nearly 5% for the month, while the S&P 500 and Dow lost around 2%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin had its roughest month since June 2022, and Tesla cratered nearly 30%—its second-worst month ever.

Investor's nerves are starting to show. Our Maniac Sentiment Index registered a 2.6/5, slipping from last month’s 2.7 and holding in slightly bearish territory.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. Stocks bounced back Friday, clawing back some losses, and Trump’s new U.S. Crypto Reserve plan sent Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana soaring.

Let’s dive in!

Market Recap 📈

Markets struggled this week, weighed down by slowing economic data and a historic yield curve inversion.

And starting tomorrow, tariffs are ramping up. A 25% excise tax hits all goods coming from Canada and Mexico, while a 10% tariff is being added to Canadian energy imports.

The bigger picture? Economic cracks may be emerging.

• The Atlanta Fed now expects Q1 GDP to shrink by 1.5%, citing a larger-than-expected trade deficit.

• Consumer confidence hit a four-year low, as economic uncertainty weighs on spending.

• The 10-year Treasury yield dipped below the 3-month note, a classic recession signal.

Markets are at a crossroads—are we seeing a temporary slowdown or the early signs of something bigger? Until the dust settles, buckle up for another volatile week ahead.

This tech company grew 32,481%...

No, it's not Nvidia... It's Mode Mobile, 2023’s fastest-growing software company according to Deloitte.

Just as Uber turned vehicles into income-generating assets, Mode is turning smartphones into an easy passive income source, already helping 45M+ users earn $325M+ through simple, everyday use.

They’ve just been granted their stock ticker by the Nasdaq, and you can still invest in their pre-IPO offering at just $0.26/share.

Invest Now

*Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur.
*The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.
*Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com.

Winners & Losers 🚀

Markets took a beating last week, and the scoreboard reflects it—more losers than winners made the cut. From beer giants bouncing back to short sellers throwing knockout punches, here’s who soared and who hit the floor.

Winners

1. Rolls-Royce ($RYCEY) – Market Cap: $81.6B (+24.2%)

The British jet engine maker (not the luxury car brand—that’s owned by BMW) just went supersonic. Rolls-Royce crushed earnings, reinstated dividends for the first time since 2020, and announced a $1.3B share buyback—all while raising future profit targets.

JPMorgan called the results "outstanding," and investors sent shares flying to an all-time high in pounds. With the U.K. pledging to boost defense spending, Rolls-Royce’s future is looking jet-powered.

2. Anheuser-Busch InBev ($BUD) – Market Cap: $117.6B (+10.8%)

Nothing smooths over a post-boycott hangover like… more beer. After a bruising few years, AB InBev is clawing back market share thanks to Michelob Ultra and Busch Light.

The company poured $7.2B into marketing, grabbed the top spot for market share growth, and even lowered its debt. And unlike rivals, tariffs won’t be a concern—nearly all of AB InBev’s U.S. beer is brewed and sold locally.

Losers

1. AppLovin ($APP) – Market Cap: $110.8B (-21.6%)

When two short-seller firms team up for a takedown, it’s never pretty. Fuzzy Panda Research and Culper Research accused AppLovin of using shady tracking practices, violating app store policies, and exploiting ad tech loopholes to juice its numbers.

CEO Adam Foroughi clapped back, calling the claims “false and misleading”, but the damage was done—the stock plunged 20% in two days. With its AI ad business now under scrutiny, the pressure is on to prove its growth is real.

2. Palantir ($PLTR) – Market Cap: $199.2B (-16.2%)

Palantir is still reeling from a double whammy. The Pentagon is eyeing defense spending cuts, threatening some of its biggest U.S. Army contracts. Meanwhile, CEO Alex Karp is preparing to dump nearly 10 million shares, sending investors scrambling.

The stock had been on fire, but it’s now down more than 30% from its all-time high less than two weeks ago. Live by the retail investor, die by the retail investor—Palantir’s cult following cuts both ways, and this week, they hit the sell button.

3. MicroStrategy ($MSTR) – Market Cap: $66.5B (-14.8%)

Bitcoin’s freefall is dragging everything down—including Michael Saylor’s crypto empire. BTC is 20% off its all-time high, and as the world’s biggest corporate Bitcoin holder, MicroStrategy is feeling the heat.

But Saylor? Unshaken. He joked about selling a kidney to buy more digital gold and even claimed that if Bitcoin dropped to $1, he wouldn’t be liquidated—he’d just buy it all. If diamond hands were a person, it’d be this guy.

The Yield Curve Is Flashing Red ⚠️

If there’s one recession indicator that gets Wall Street buzzing, it’s the yield curve—and last week, it inverted again.

The Yield Curve, Explained

The yield curve is a chart that shows interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds of different lengths.

Normally, longer-term bonds (like 10-year Treasuries) have higher yields than short-term ones (like 3-month or 2-year notes) because investors demand a greater return for tying up their money longer.

What Happens When It Inverts?

Sometimes, short-term rates rise above long-term ones, flipping the curve upside down. This is known as a yield curve inversion.

Investors interpret it as a warning sign. Higher short-term yields may indicate expectations of slower growth or future Fed rate cuts, potentially signaling economic trouble ahead.

Historically, an inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable predictors of recessions.

But Wait… No Recession?

The last time the yield curve inverted was in October 2022—over two years ago—and yet, no recession has materialized. That’s led some to wonder if the old playbook still applies.

Could this time be different? Some argue that inflation expectations, Fed policy, and a strong labor market are delaying (or even preventing) the downturn. Others think we’re just waiting for the lag to catch up.

For now, the bond market is flashing caution—but whether this is another false alarm or the real deal remains to be seen.

Pay No Interest Until Nearly 2027 AND Earn 5% Cash Back

Use a 0% intro APR card to pay off debt.
Transfer your balance and avoid interest charges.
This top card offers 0% APR into 2027 + 5% cash back!

Learn How To Apply Now

Worth The Read 📚

✈️ Air travel isn’t as dangerous as it seems. Despite recent high-profile incidents, aviation fatalities are actually trending lower in 2025.

💰 The U.S. economy is fueled by the top 10%. Wealthy Americans now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, propping up economic growth.

👔 D.C. tops the federal pay charts. Government workers in the nation’s capital earn an average of $136K, with Maryland and Virginia close behind.

💵 Waiting for your tax refund? The IRS says most refunds will arrive within 21 days, but certain factors could cause delays. Here’s how to track yours.

🥚 Eggflation is back—avian flu has pushed egg prices over $8 per dozen, and Trump is calling the surge a “disaster.” The U.S. is now ramping up imports to stabilize supply.

🌎 Governments are shutting down the internet at record rates—with 296 outages across 54 countries last year. Digital blackouts are being used as a weapon against protests and political dissent.

🏡 These are the 10 happiest cities in America. A mix of warm weather, strong job markets, and community vibes determine the rankings—but some of the top picks may surprise you.

The Week Ahead 🔍

Retail takes center stage this week, with Target, Costco, Macy’s, and most of the shops in your local mall reporting earnings. Meanwhile, ISM data, the Fed’s Beige Book, and Friday’s jobs report will test the market’s resolve.

Monday

• February ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 51.0)

Tuesday

• Earnings from CrowdStrike, AutoZone, Target, Ross, Best Buy, and Nordstrom

Wednesday

• Earnings from Zscaler, MongoDB, Abercrombie, Victorias Secret, and Foot Locker

• February ISM Services PMI (est. 53.0)

• Fed Beige Book

Thursday

• Earnings from Broadcom, Costco, JD.com, Kroger, Burlington, BJ’s Wholesale, Gap, and Macy’s

Friday

• February Non-Farm Payrolls (est. 133K)

• February Unemployment Rate (est. 4.0%)

That’s a wrap! See you next Monday with all the market insights and money tips you need to stay ahead.

Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

P.S. Have feedback, burning questions, or just want to say hi? Reply directly to this email!

DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.