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- đ° Maniac Minute: The 4% That Drives 100% Of Gains
đ° Maniac Minute: The 4% That Drives 100% Of Gains
Stock picking seems straightforward in theoryâjust buy the âwinnersâ and avoid the âlosers.â In reality, itâs far tougher than it looks. One big reason? Positive skewness of returns.
Good morning, Maniacs!
Ready to kick off the first full week of 2025? Jimmy Carterâs memorial shuts down trading this Thursday, the U.S. dollar is flexing on global markets, and Mike Johnsonâs big House-floor victory sets the political stage.
Meanwhile, Apple surprised us in China, and a judge set Trumpâs sentencing just days before heâs sworn in. Throw in new jobs data, FOMC minutes, and a few big earnings reportsâand youâve got the ingredients for one wild week.
Letâs dive in!

Market Recap đ
Wall Street finally crawled out of bed on Friday, shaking off the worst start to a year sinceâwell, last year.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.3%, the Dow tacked on 0.8%, and the Nasdaq soared 1.8%, thanks to Tesla and Nvidia making up for lost ground. Think of it as the New Yearâs resolution rally that showed up fashionably late.
The 10-year yield held firm at 4.6%, nudging mortgage rates back into the dreaded 7% zone. Fortunately, initial jobless claims fell to an 8-month low, keeping unemployment steady at 4.2%.
For now, the economy seems sturdy enough to weather the Fedâs âhigher for longerâ stance.
Crude oil, on the other hand, extended its 5-day rallyâclimbing past $74 a barrel. Investors are banking on Chinaâs stimulus efforts and frosty East Coast weather forecasts to boost demand.
Meanwhile, rumors are swirling that Trump may sanction Iranian oil exportsâpotentially balancing out the risk of global oversupply.
Speaking of predictions, we want to know yours! Take our 2-minute 2025 Prediction Survey for a chance to be the Money Maniac of the year.

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Winners & Losers đ
Itâs that time againâwho soared, who stumbled, and who just canât decide what theyâre doing next. Letâs jump into this weekâs biggest moves!
Winners
1. Rivian ($RIVN) â Market Cap: $16.8B (+20.8%)
Rivianâs stock shifted into sport mode after beating fourth-quarter delivery expectations. With component shortages resolved, the company can now churn out its R1 SUVs, R1T trucks, and those ever-important Amazon delivery vans without production bottlenecks.
Still, the real question is whether Rivian can keep burning rubber toward actual profitabilityâor if this rally is running on fumes.
2. Constellation Energy ($CEG) â Market Cap: $78.9B (+11.4%)
Constellation basked in the glow of a $1 billion federal deal to power over 13 agencies with nuclear energy. Analysts predict the contract could add 10â15 cents to annual EPS.
However, the latest buzz comes from new tax credits for hydrogen production that favor nuclear energy. Constellation and its 21 reactors might just ride a wave of government cash and renewed nuclear hype straight to the bank.
3. Joby Aviation ($JOBY) â Market Cap: $7.5T (+9.4%)
Jobyâs shares soared as news broke that the Biden administration might ban Chinese drone tech, potentially clearing the runway for U.S. eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) players.
Joby aims to make ridesharing in the skies as normal as grabbing an Uber, and any government pushback against competitors could play right into its hands. Whether they can turn futuristic prototypes into a stable, profitable fleet remains up in the airâquite literally.
Losers
1. Carvana ($CVNA) â Market Cap: $20.7B (-17.6%)
Hindenburg Research hit Carvana with a scathing report, accusing the company of accounting manipulation and lax underwriting. Shares tanked as the short-seller painted Carvanaâs comeback as a âmirage,â wiping out billions in market value.
Carvana fired back, calling the report âintentionally misleading.â J.P. Morgan even defended its Outperform rating on the stock, claiming it found no smoking gunsâbut the report had already left a dent.
2. Apple ($AAPL) â Market Cap: $3.70T (-4.8%)
Apple surprised everyone by offering iPhone discounts in China, signaling pressure from local competitors like Huawei. The $70 price cut breaks Appleâs long-standing no-discount tradition and raises concerns about its market share in its largest international market.
Adding insult to injury, Apple also settled a $95 million lawsuit over Siriâs âaccidentalâ eavesdropping. With a generous $20 per-device payout, you can now put that privacy breach money toward... half an Apple charging cable. Apple's privacy-first reputation, however, might need a bit more than pocket change to recover.

The 4% That Drives 100% Of Gains đ°
Stock picking seems straightforward in theoryâjust buy the âwinnersâ and avoid the âlosers.â In reality, itâs far tougher than it looks.
According on one study, 86% of professional money managers underperform their benchmarks over a 10-year periodâdespite the immense resources and brainpower at their disposal.
One big reason? Positive skewness of returns: a small minority of superstar stocks drive most of the marketâs gains, while the majority underperform.
Consider this: From 1998 to 2017, the median stock in the S&P 500 delivered a cumulative return of only 50%, or 2.0% per yearâfar below the indexâs 6.1% annualized return.
This gap exists because a handful of stocks soared by hundreds (or even thousands) of percent, pulling the average higher. Miss out on these rare rockets, and your portfolioâs performance lags.
Long-term research paints an even starker picture: over a 90-year period, only 4% of stocks accounted for all of the marketâs total wealth creation. In other words, finding the next Apple or Microsoft is like searching for a needle in a haystack.
For most investors, success hinges heavily on owning those few powerhouses. The good news? By investing in a broad-based index, you automatically own the superstars, ensuring you capture the marketâs long-term gains.
For the average investor, indexing isnât just an easier routeâitâs a better bet than gambling on guesswork, no matter how confident you feel in your stock-picking abilities.

Worth The Read đ
đ¸ 2024âs tax refund schedule might only take 21 daysâunless youâre opting for good olâ snail mail. Early filers with certain credits could still face delays.
â Biden kills $14.9B steel takeover, blocking Japanâs Nippon Steel from nabbing U.S. Steel. The White House cites national security and supply chain risks.
đ Five key trends to watch in 2025 feature everything from AI spending to housing starts. Whether big tech keeps fueling the market or interest rates bite back is anyoneâs guess.
đť Surgeon general warns that alcohol consumption poses a âwell-establishedâ cancer riskâenough to push for new labels on your favorite drinks.
đď¸ 2025 commercial real estate trends paint a hopeful picture. Industrial stays solid, multifamily overbuilding looms in certain Sun Belt hot spots, and affordable housing could spark new projects.
đ° Record $1T in ETF investment underscores ârisk-onâ vibes as investors ditch old-school mutual funds for the tax perks and easy trading of exchange-traded funds.
đłď¸ Mike Johnsonâs big day ended with him securing the speakerâs gavelâafter dramatic vote reversals and some last-minute huddles on the House floor.
âď¸ Judge sets Trump sentencing for Jan. 10, right before his second inauguration. The kicker? Trump could avoid prison time, probation, and even a fine altogether.
đ Mileiâs $1B repo win brings fresh cash to Argentinaâs central bank and a big smile to the libertarian presidentâs face, sending the nationâs bonds higher.

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The Week Ahead đ
Monday starts slow but things pick up as we move into the heart of the week. Even though Thursday is off, we still have FOMC minutes, major earnings reports, and Decemberâs job numbers on deck.
Monday
Nothing to see here
Tuesday
Decemberâs ISM Services PMI (est. 53.5)
Novemberâs JOLTs Job Openings (est. 7.65 million)
Wednesday
Earnings from Albertsons
Decemberâs FOMC minutes released
Thursday
Earnings from Constellation Brands, Walgreens, KB Home
Stock market closed in honor of President Jimmy Carter
Bond market closes at 2 p.m. EST
Friday
Earnings from Bank of America, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Delta Airlines
Decemberâs Non-Farm Payrolls (est. 150,000)
Decemberâs Unemployment Rate (est. 4.2%)

Thatâs a wrap! See you next Monday with all the market insights and money tips you need to stay ahead.
Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac đ¸
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DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.
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