💰 Maniac Minute: The 4% That Drives 100% Of Gains

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Good morning, Maniacs!

Ready to kick off the first full week of 2025? Jimmy Carter’s memorial shuts down trading this Thursday, the U.S. dollar is flexing on global markets, and Mike Johnson’s big House-floor victory sets the political stage.

Meanwhile, Apple surprised us in China, and a judge set Trump’s sentencing just days before he’s sworn in. Throw in new jobs data, FOMC minutes, and a few big earnings reports—and you’ve got the ingredients for one wild week.

Let’s dive in!

Market Recap 📈

Wall Street finally crawled out of bed on Friday, shaking off the worst start to a year since—well, last year.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.3%, the Dow tacked on 0.8%, and the Nasdaq soared 1.8%, thanks to Tesla and Nvidia making up for lost ground. Think of it as the New Year’s resolution rally that showed up fashionably late.

The 10-year yield held firm at 4.6%, nudging mortgage rates back into the dreaded 7% zone. Fortunately, initial jobless claims fell to an 8-month low, keeping unemployment steady at 4.2%.

For now, the economy seems sturdy enough to weather the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance.

Crude oil, on the other hand, extended its 5-day rally—climbing past $74 a barrel. Investors are banking on China’s stimulus efforts and frosty East Coast weather forecasts to boost demand.

Meanwhile, rumors are swirling that Trump may sanction Iranian oil exports—potentially balancing out the risk of global oversupply.

Speaking of predictions, we want to know yours! Take our 2-minute 2025 Prediction Survey for a chance to be the Money Maniac of the year.

The NEXT Trillion Dollar Company?

This company just signed a MASSIVE deal with Apple.

It gets their AI tech in Apple’s iPhones and iMacs until 2040!

But it goes beyond that.

The company is getting its tech into products by Nvidia, Google, and Samsung too.

Its AI tech is so crucial…

Nvidia is actually buying up the stock too.

They’ve invested more in this one company than any other… nearly $150 million.

Is this stock the next Nvidia… which has gone up 81,700% over the last 20 years?

Watch this breakdown of this stock right here.

Winners & Losers 🚀

It’s that time again—who soared, who stumbled, and who just can’t decide what they’re doing next. Let’s jump into this week’s biggest moves!

Winners

1. Rivian ($RIVN) – Market Cap: $16.8B (+20.8%)

Rivian’s stock shifted into sport mode after beating fourth-quarter delivery expectations. With component shortages resolved, the company can now churn out its R1 SUVs, R1T trucks, and those ever-important Amazon delivery vans without production bottlenecks.

Still, the real question is whether Rivian can keep burning rubber toward actual profitability—or if this rally is running on fumes.

2. Constellation Energy ($CEG) – Market Cap: $78.9B (+11.4%)

Constellation basked in the glow of a $1 billion federal deal to power over 13 agencies with nuclear energy. Analysts predict the contract could add 10–15 cents to annual EPS.

However, the latest buzz comes from new tax credits for hydrogen production that favor nuclear energy. Constellation and its 21 reactors might just ride a wave of government cash and renewed nuclear hype straight to the bank.

3. Joby Aviation ($JOBY) – Market Cap: $7.5T (+9.4%)

Joby’s shares soared as news broke that the Biden administration might ban Chinese drone tech, potentially clearing the runway for U.S. eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) players.

Joby aims to make ridesharing in the skies as normal as grabbing an Uber, and any government pushback against competitors could play right into its hands. Whether they can turn futuristic prototypes into a stable, profitable fleet remains up in the air—quite literally.

Losers

1. Carvana ($CVNA) – Market Cap: $20.7B (-17.6%)

Hindenburg Research hit Carvana with a scathing report, accusing the company of accounting manipulation and lax underwriting. Shares tanked as the short-seller painted Carvana’s comeback as a “mirage,” wiping out billions in market value.

Carvana fired back, calling the report “intentionally misleading.” J.P. Morgan even defended its Outperform rating on the stock, claiming it found no smoking guns—but the report had already left a dent.

2. Apple ($AAPL) – Market Cap: $3.70T (-4.8%)

Apple surprised everyone by offering iPhone discounts in China, signaling pressure from local competitors like Huawei. The $70 price cut breaks Apple’s long-standing no-discount tradition and raises concerns about its market share in its largest international market.

Adding insult to injury, Apple also settled a $95 million lawsuit over Siri’s “accidental” eavesdropping. With a generous $20 per-device payout, you can now put that privacy breach money toward... half an Apple charging cable. Apple's privacy-first reputation, however, might need a bit more than pocket change to recover.

The 4% That Drives 100% Of Gains 💰

Stock picking seems straightforward in theory—just buy the “winners” and avoid the “losers.” In reality, it’s far tougher than it looks.

According on one study, 86% of professional money managers underperform their benchmarks over a 10-year period—despite the immense resources and brainpower at their disposal.

One big reason? Positive skewness of returns: a small minority of superstar stocks drive most of the market’s gains, while the majority underperform.

Consider this: From 1998 to 2017, the median stock in the S&P 500 delivered a cumulative return of only 50%, or 2.0% per year—far below the index’s 6.1% annualized return.

This gap exists because a handful of stocks soared by hundreds (or even thousands) of percent, pulling the average higher. Miss out on these rare rockets, and your portfolio’s performance lags.

Long-term research paints an even starker picture: over a 90-year period, only 4% of stocks accounted for all of the market’s total wealth creation. In other words, finding the next Apple or Microsoft is like searching for a needle in a haystack.

For most investors, success hinges heavily on owning those few powerhouses. The good news? By investing in a broad-based index, you automatically own the superstars, ensuring you capture the market’s long-term gains.

For the average investor, indexing isn’t just an easier route—it’s a better bet than gambling on guesswork, no matter how confident you feel in your stock-picking abilities.

Worth The Read 📚

💸 2024’s tax refund schedule might only take 21 days—unless you’re opting for good ol’ snail mail. Early filers with certain credits could still face delays.

⛔ Biden kills $14.9B steel takeover, blocking Japan’s Nippon Steel from nabbing U.S. Steel. The White House cites national security and supply chain risks.

📊 Five key trends to watch in 2025 feature everything from AI spending to housing starts. Whether big tech keeps fueling the market or interest rates bite back is anyone’s guess.

🍻 Surgeon general warns that alcohol consumption poses a “well-established” cancer risk—enough to push for new labels on your favorite drinks.

🏙️ 2025 commercial real estate trends paint a hopeful picture. Industrial stays solid, multifamily overbuilding looms in certain Sun Belt hot spots, and affordable housing could spark new projects.

💰 Record $1T in ETF investment underscores “risk-on” vibes as investors ditch old-school mutual funds for the tax perks and easy trading of exchange-traded funds.

🗳️ Mike Johnson’s big day ended with him securing the speaker’s gavel—after dramatic vote reversals and some last-minute huddles on the House floor.

⚖️ Judge sets Trump sentencing for Jan. 10, right before his second inauguration. The kicker? Trump could avoid prison time, probation, and even a fine altogether.

🌎 Milei’s $1B repo win brings fresh cash to Argentina’s central bank and a big smile to the libertarian president’s face, sending the nation’s bonds higher.

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The Week Ahead 🔍

Monday starts slow but things pick up as we move into the heart of the week. Even though Thursday is off, we still have FOMC minutes, major earnings reports, and December’s job numbers on deck.

Monday

• Nothing to see here

Tuesday

• December’s ISM Services PMI (est. 53.5)

• November’s JOLTs Job Openings (est. 7.65 million)

Wednesday

• Earnings from Albertsons

• December’s FOMC minutes released

Thursday

• Earnings from Constellation Brands, Walgreens, KB Home

• Stock market closed in honor of President Jimmy Carter

• Bond market closes at 2 p.m. EST

Friday

• Earnings from Bank of America, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Delta Airlines

• December’s Non-Farm Payrolls (est. 150,000)

• December’s Unemployment Rate (est. 4.2%)

That’s a wrap! See you next Monday with all the market insights and money tips you need to stay ahead.

Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

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DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.