💰 Maniac Minute: Private Equity Wants Your Nest Egg

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Good morning, Maniacs!

Stocks were flat. The Fed stayed put. And most of the week felt like a snooze… until Saturday night lit the fuse.

In a major twist, U.S. forces struck Iranian nuclear sites. That has markets on edge this morning, with oil on the move, safe havens rallying, and Bitcoin slipping under $100K.

In today’s issue: 16 billion passwords leaked, Kroger closes stores to boost profits, and First Solar tanks on tax credit news.

Let’s dive in! 👇

Market Recap 📈

Stocks finished the short week mostly unchanged, shrugging off two big headlines: escalating Middle East tensions and a Fed that’s still bracing for stubborn inflation.

Overall, it was a quiet week... until it wasn’t.

On Saturday night, U.S. forces launched strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, marking the first direct American military involvement in the conflict.

In our poll last Monday, 25% of readers predicted U.S. intervention. That call, as it turns out, was spot on.

The move marked a sharp departure from President Trump’s typically hands-off foreign policy and immediately raised concerns of broader escalation.

Oil had already crept up to $75, but the next move depends on one of three scenarios:

• Worst case: Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for global energy. J.P. Morgan warns crude could rocket to $120, U.S. inflation could hit 5%, and California gas prices could touch $6.

• Diplomatic resolution: A long shot, but talks could ease tensions and cool prices.

• Muddled middle: Ongoing tit-for-tat between Israel and Iran without further U.S. escalation. That could keep oil elevated, but short of crisis mode.

Vice President Vance believes a full blockade “would be suicidal,” as Iran relies heavily on those shipping lanes.

A more likely play? Local retaliation and renewed Houthi attacks on Red Sea trade routes, which would slow global shipping, raise import costs, and stir up fresh inflation.

This morning, markets are reacting. Here’s what to expect:

• Oil to climb on fresh supply fears

• Gold and the U.S. dollar to rise as classic safe havens

• Stocks to slip modestly, except for defense and energy names

• Bitcoin to suffer (already under $100K) in a clear risk-off move

In the short term, volatility is unavoidable.

Fortunately, oil shocks often pass quickly. If this conflict ultimately brings more regional stability, some strategists think it could even turn into a medium-term boost for risk assets.

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Winners & Losers 🚀

A grocer got leaner and meaner, Reddit found new life in AI, and solar stocks got scorched by Washington. Here’s who thrived and who took the L last week.

Winners

1. Reddit ($RDDT) – Market Cap: $25.7B (+17.7%)

Reddit $RDDT ( ▼ 1.82% ) jumped after unveiling an AI ad tool that allows brands to identify trends and incorporate Reddit comments into campaigns. A new report also revealed that Reddit is the second-most-cited website in Google’s AI overviews.

Add in Meta’s massive acquisition of Scale AI, and analysts increasingly believe Reddit is sitting on a goldmine of user-generated data. It’s no wonder investors upvoted the stock.

2. Kroger ($KR) – Market Cap: $47.9B (+9.8%)

Kroger $KR ( ▲ 0.64% ) delivered a strong earnings beat and raised its full-year sales forecast, sending the stock to the top of the S&P 500 on Friday. Same-store sales outpaced expectations, fueled by strength in pharmacy, ecommerce, and fresh food.

The grocer also announced plans to close 60 underperforming stores, redirecting savings into customer experience upgrades. It’s part of a broader strategy to focus on “profitable market share growth” as Walmart and Costco continue to eat into the grocery space.

Losers

1. First Solar ($FSLR) – Market Cap: $15.6B (-17.2%)

First Solar $FSLR ( ▼ 0.54% ) got scorched after the Senate proposed slashing renewable energy tax credits. The plan would reduce credits 60% in 2026 and eliminate them entirely by 2028, years earlier than expected.

That’s a direct hit to the U.S.’s largest solar module maker, which leans on those subsidies to stay competitive. Solar might be clean, but it’s not yet price-competitive. Without tax credits, the entire solar value chain—from installations to battery storage—could dim.

2. Mastercard ($MA) – Market Cap: $484.0B (-5.2%)

Stablecoins are getting serious, and that’s bad news for plastic. Mastercard $MA ( ▼ 0.28% ) slipped after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act, setting the stage for regulated, low-fee digital payments.

With Coinbase rolling out a new stablecoin payment solution and giants like Amazon exploring crypto checkout, legacy processors like Mastercard and Visa are feeling the heat. Investors interpreted the bill as a shot at the traditional swipe.

Private Equity Wants A Bite Of Your 401(k) 🪙

Private equity (PE) has long been the playground of the ultra-wealthy. Now, it wants in on your retirement savings.

401(k) giant Empower is exploring ways to add private equity and credit investments to select retirement plans—an idea that has critics like Senator Elizabeth Warren fuming.

In a rare twist, I agree with her. She slammed PE’s high fees, lack of transparency, and so-so track record. Her take? This smells less like innovation and more like desperation.

The timing checks out.

According to PitchBook, PE fundraising dropped 35% year-over-year in Q1. With institutional money drying up, firms are suddenly looking to retail investors.

But this raises the question: If the pros are heading for the exits, should you really be walking in?

Here’s how the typical PE model works:

• Management fees run 1-2% of assets under management

• Firms take 20% of any gains if things go well

• Incentives favor raising more money, regardless of performance

That means your 401(k) could end up in whatever helps boost fee income, not necessarily what earns you the best return.

To be fair, some private equity funds are excellent.

But here’s a skeptical rule of thumb: when an exclusive asset class trickles down to the general public, it’s often because institutions have passed.

Think SPACs. Think venture capital deals.

It’s not always a red flag. But it’s worth asking: why now?

Of course, optionality is great. Just make sure you understand who you’re investing with—and why they’re suddenly interested in you.

Worth The Read 📚

🔓 Massive 16B password breach hits tech giants, exposing credentials from Apple, Google, Facebook, and more.

🚕 Waymo applies to test robotaxis in NYC, bringing its self-driving cars to the country’s most chaotic streets, with human safety drivers riding along.

📉 Berkshire shares have slumped over 10% since Warren Buffett announced his retirement. Analysts say the “Buffett premium” might still have further to fall.

🧓 5 smart questions for early retirees, from health care hacks to sustainable drawdown strategies.

🌍 Fund managers bet on global stocks, with 54% favoring international markets over U.S. equities. The most crowded trade? Still gold.

🤖 AI is replacing jobs at Amazon, the country’s second-largest employer. Microsoft is cutting roles, too—as both double down on AI.

🧠 Microsoft may ditch equity talks with OpenAI, citing stalled negotiations. But it can still use the tech until 2030 under its existing agreement.

The Week Ahead 🔍

A barrage of Fed speeches and economic data will keep markets on their toes, culminating in Friday’s PCE inflation report. Until then, we’ll get updates on home sales and consumer confidence, plus earnings from FedEx, Micron, and Nike.

Monday

• Earnings from FactSet and KB Home

• May Existing Home Sales (est. 3.95M)

Tuesday

• Earnings from FedEx and Carnival

• April Case Shiller Home Price (est. 4.2% YoY)

• June CB Consumer Confidence (est. 99.1)

Wednesday

• Earnings from Micron, Paychex, General Mills, and Levi

• May New Home Sales (est. 0.71M)

Thursday

• Earnings from Nike, McCormick, and Walgreens

• May Durable Goods Orders (est. 6.8% MoM)

• Q1 GDP Growth Rate Final (est. -0.2%)

• May Pending Home Sales (est. 0.1% MoM)

Friday

• May PCE Price Index (est. 0.1% MoM, 2.2% YoY)

• May Core PCE Price Index (est. 0.1% MoM, 2.6% YoY)

• May Personal Income (est. 0.3% MoM)

• May Personal Spending (est. 0.2% MoM)

That’s it for today! If you made it this far, you’re exactly why I do this.

All I ask for? A little feedback. Your comments, questions, and suggestions help me improve and shape future editions.

Just hit reply or leave a quick review below. It helps more than you know.

Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.