💰 5 Fact Friday: Oracle’s $523B Question Mark

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STOCKS
1. Micron’s Boom Is Everyone Else’s Problem 📱

Micron $MU ( ▲ 10.21% ) has been on a rollercoaster lately, but zoom out and the story is simple: AI demand is eating the memory market alive.

This week, Micron reported blowout earnings that sent the stock sharply higher. Revenue jumped 57% year over year to $13.6B, and management guided to nearly $18.7B next quarter, crushing Wall Street expectations.

So why the volatility? Because Micron isn’t just growing fast. It’s revealing how tight the system really is.

First, a quick memory primer: Micron sells two main types of memory.

• DRAM is the everyday working memory inside phones, PCs, consoles, and servers.

• HBM, or high-bandwidth memory, is a faster, more specialized version used mainly in AI data centers.

Both rely on similar factories, which is where the tension starts.

What’s driving Micron higher

• AI servers require massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM)

• Cloud and data-center demand is soaking up the limited supply

• Memory prices are surging as shortages worsen

Spot prices for common DRAM modules are up 60% in just six months, and analysts expect prices to nearly double year over year. Micron says industry supply will remain “substantially short” of demand well into 2026 and beyond.

Micron is spending a record $20B this year to expand capacity, but even new factories won’t help quickly. One major U.S. fab won’t produce chips until 2030.

Why the stock still whipsaws

Investors love the pricing power, but they also know cycles matter.

Every boom raises the same question: How long can shortages last before supply finally catches up? That uncertainty fuels short-term swings.

What this means for consumers

Bad news: higher chip prices don’t stay in data centers.

• PCs and smartphones need more memory for AI features

• Console makers are already warning about margin pressure

• Device prices are likely heading higher in 2026

In short, Micron’s surge is a tax on gadgets everywhere. AI is winning the bidding war, and your next phone or laptop may help pay the bill.

STOCKS
2. Oracle’s AI Hype Hit A Wall 👀

Oracle was one of the biggest AI winners of 2025… until it wasn’t.

Since peaking in September, $ORCL ( ▲ 0.88% ) is down more than 45%. Surprisingly, the selloff has less to do with revenue today and more to do with promises tomorrow.

The key issue? A forward-looking accounting metric called Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs).

RPOs represent contracted future sales that have not been booked as revenue yet. They’re considered “probable,” not guaranteed. (Think signed deals that still need to be collected over time.)

Back in September, Oracle stunned Wall Street by reporting $455B in RPOs, which later grew to $523B. That’s roughly 9× its trailing annual revenue. The stock exploded.

Then investors started asking harder questions.

Roughly $300B of Oracle’s RPO jump comes from a five-year contract with OpenAI for massive cloud capacity.

The concern isn’t demand. It’s collectibility.

OpenAI is still burning cash, fundraising aggressively, and relies heavily on outside capital. Analysts are now questioning whether it can realistically fulfill a $300B commitment. One JPMorgan analyst summed it up bluntly: “If you build it, will they pay?”

At the same time, Oracle is ramping up data center construction, carrying about $105B in debt, and sitting on nearly $250B in long-term lease commitments. Last week, Blue Owl Capital declined to fund a major new Oracle data center, perhaps due to AI spending discipline.

Oracle says replacement funding is lined up, but the stock price indicates that investors are not convinced.

The bottom line: Oracle’s selloff isn’t about today’s earnings. It’s about whether tomorrow’s AI mega-deals are real, repeatable, and payable. Time will tell.

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FAST FACTS
3. From Robotaxis To Record IPOs 🚀

🚕 Tesla cuts the human cord: Elon Musk confirmed $TSLA ( ▲ 3.45% ) is now testing robotaxis in Austin with no safety driver onboard, a major step toward a fully commercial autonomous ride-hailing service. [Read]

🌿 Cannabis stocks catch a rare high: Trump signed an executive order to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug, on par with substances like steroids and Tylenol with codeine. [Read]

📈 Coinbase goes full financial supermarket: $COIN ( ▼ 2.04% ) is rolling out stock trading, prediction markets with Kalshi, and leveraged stock perps, pushing toward a one-stop app for trading everything. [Read]

🤖 Roomba maker hits a wall: iRobot $IRBT ( ▼ 12.49% ) plunged 87% after filing for bankruptcy, less than 2 years after its deal with Amazon was blocked on antitrust grounds. [Read]

💸 Fund managers are all-in: BofA says cash allocations fell to a record-low 3.3%. This is the most bullish positioning in years and a classic contrarian warning signal for risk assets. [Read]

🏠 Google takes aim at Zillow: Google is testing in-search home listings with HouseCanary, letting users browse properties, request tours, and contact agents without ever leaving search results. [Read]

🎄 America’s favorite Christmas movies: A new YouGov poll shows 64% of U.S. adults plan to watch one this season, with clear winners and some truly questionable favorites. [Read]

🕒 Nasdaq wants to trade overnight: $NDAQ ( ▲ 1.07% ) filed to extend trading to 23 hours a day, chasing global demand and following the NYSE’s push toward near-continuous markets by 2026. [Read]

🚑 Medline’s blockbuster debut: The medical supply giant surged 40% after raising $6.3B in its IPO, valuing the company at over $50B as investors bet on steady healthcare demand. [Read]

TAX
4. Retirement Savings: Pre-Tax or Post-Tax? 💸

Most financial advisors recommend saving at least 10% of your income for retirement. But should that be pre-tax or post-tax?

For lower-income earners or those nearing retirement, the distinction may not make a huge difference. But for high earners and young Maniacs out there, the impact can be significant.

Fidelity suggests having at least 10 years of income saved by retirement (more if retiring before 67). Let’s explore how pre-tax and post-tax contributions can get you there.

Example 1: $50,000 Income

• Post-Tax Contributions: Investing 10% of your post-tax income ($3,800) yearly, you'd hit Fidelity's retirement target in ~27 years, assuming a 10% annual return.

• Pre-Tax Contributions: Investing 10% pre-tax ($5,000) takes ~24 years to retire. That’s 3 extra years of retirement.

But let’s say you hold off on early retirement.

If you invest over a 30-year timeline instead, the pre-tax route could net you an extra $220,000 compared to the post-tax route! (For only $36,000 more in contributions.)

Example 2: $100,000 Income

• Post-Tax Contributions: Investing 10% post-tax ($7,000), you'd hit the retirement target in ~28 years.

• Pre-Tax Contributions: Investing 10% pre-tax ($10,000) takes ~24 years to retire. That’s 4 more years with your feet in the sand.

Once again, if you extend your investment horizon to 30 years, the pre-tax route nets you $540,000 more than the post-tax route! This extra half million comes from just $90,000 in additional contributions.

The takeaway? Small differences, like saving an extra 2-3% of your salary, can compound into hundreds of thousands—or even millions—more by retirement.

TRIVIA
5. How Often Does SCOTUS Reverse? ⚖️

The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals recently ruled that President Trump exceeded his legal authority by instituting global tariffs using emergency powers.

On Polymarket, traders give just a 28% chance that the Supreme Court sides with Trump and reverses that decision.

Which raises a broader question...

How often does the Supreme Court actually reverse a lower court ruling?

Take your guess:

 A. 12%
 B. 29%
 C. 48%
 D. 71%

👉 Tap to Reveal the Answer → 

Thanks For Reading!

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