💰 5 Fact Friday: Even Nvidia Can’t Save This Market

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MARKETS
1. The Bears Are In Control 🐻

The AI trade is having a full-on identity crisis. After a monster run this year, cracks finally started to show, and both bulls and bears have receipts.

Let’s start with the bears.

For four straight sessions, tech stocks slid as investors questioned whether valuations had gotten ahead of reality. Peter Thiel dumped his entire Nvidia stake. Harvard’s endowment also trimmed its position in the chipmaker.

Then the good news.

Anthropic announced a new $30 billion deal for Microsoft's computing power, alongside fresh investment. This announcement highlights the ongoing demand for substantial computing resources.

Earlier this year, a deal like that would have sent AI stocks flying. This week, it barely made a dent.

Next, Google took a shot at turning the tide.

Shortly after Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.9 billion stake in Alphabet, the company released Gemini 3. The multimodal (text, image, audio) AI model can understand more complex prompts with less guidance. According to many leaderboards, like LLM Stats, it is now the model to beat.

This announcement pushed Google to a record high as stocks finally booked a win on Wednesday.

After the close, the largest company in the world reported earnings. And as per usual, Nvidia did not disappoint.

• Revenue jumped 62% to $57 billion

• Data center sales climbed 66%

• The company guided to $65 billion in sales next quarter

All key metrics exceeded Wall Street estimates. CEO Jensen Huang added that Blackwell demand is "off the charts" and cloud GPUs are completely sold out.

Markets popped to start Thursday morning, but the green candles were short-lived. By mid-afternoon, there was a sharp reversal. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite saw the steepest decline of the day with a more than 3.5% intraday swing.

The bulls may have a vision, but right now the bears have taken back momentum. And with nearly 70% of Maniacs in our last poll saying the AI trade still has room to run, it’s clear this story isn’t finished.

The tug-of-war continues.

STOCKS
2. What Retail Reveals About Consumers 🛍️

Consumer spending powers nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. So when the nation’s biggest retailers speak, we listen.

This week, we got updates from five of the heavyweights. Each report gives a glimpse into what’s working and what’s wobbling heading into the holidays.

Walmart $WMT ( ▲ 0.79% )

📈 E-commerce momentum and store upgrades fueled strong Q3 results

Walmart saw revenue rise to $179.5B as it attracted shoppers across income levels, including higher earners. Online sales grew at a double-digit pace, and ongoing store remodels helped drive traffic. It marked the second straight quarter the company raised its full-year guidance.

Target $TGT ( ▼ 0.97% )

📉 Soft traffic and weak discretionary spending weighed on results

Revenue slipped to $25.3B and same-store sales fell 2.7% as shoppers stuck to essentials. Target is cutting prices on thousands of everyday items and expanding its holiday lineup, while also increasing capital spending by 25% to improve stores. Even so, the results point to deeper competitive and brand challenges.

TJX $TJX ( ▼ 0.73% )

📈 Value-hungry shoppers and holiday momentum powered the quarter

TJX delivered 5% same-store sales growth as deal seekers and higher-income shoppers search the aisles. Revenue grew to $15.1B and earnings topped expectations, prompting the company to raise its outlook and report that holiday shopping is already off to a “strong start.”

Home Depot $HD ( ▼ 0.92% ) 

📉 Slowing big-ticket projects continued to drag on performance

Home Depot reported $3.74 in earnings per share and missed expectations for the third straight quarter. High interest rates, a quiet storm season, and stalled housing turnover kept customers from taking on major renovations. Comparable store sales inched higher, but not enough for the company to maintain its full-year forecast.

Lowe’s $LOW ( ▼ 1.31% )

📈 Pro customers and seasonal demand kept results solid

Lowe’s delivered $3.06 in earnings per share and noted that early Q4 comps are already positive. Steady demand from Pro customers and stronger seasonal categories helped offset the same housing market challenges that hit Home Depot. Lowe’s still trimmed its full-year profit guidance, but its performance shows it is navigating the slowdown more effectively than its rival.

Zooming Out

Home improvement is stuck in neutral, with high mortgage rates putting big renovation projects on pause.

Otherwise, the consumer isn’t tapped out, but they may be trading down. Walmart and TJX are crushing it with price-conscious shoppers, even those making six figures.

And Target? It’s struggling, but that feels more like a Target problem than a warning sign for the rest of retail.

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CRYPTO
3. Bitcoin Crashes $40K In 6 Weeks 🩸

After a failed Up-tober, welcome to Pain-vember.

Since hitting a high of $126,000 on October 6, Bitcoin has plunged to as low as $86,000. That’s a 32% slide in just six weeks. The overall crypto market? Down over $1 trillion in market cap.

Earlier this year, there was a theory that Bitcoin ETFs, institutional buyers, and a friendlier regulatory climate would slowly calm the crypto rollercoaster. Instead, we seem to be getting the same ride with new passengers.

So what’s driving the decline?

• Risk-off sentiment: When markets get nervous, investors pull back from risky assets like crypto. That’s what’s happening now. BlackRock’s fund alone has now lost $1.43 billion since Saturday.

• Leverage unwinds: Many traders use borrowed money (leverage) to boost their crypto bets. But when prices drop, they’re forced to sell. That triggers a chain reaction of selling, which pushes prices even lower.

• Crypto treasury stocks are correcting: Companies like Strategy hold a ton of Bitcoin on their balance sheets. When Bitcoin drops, their stock prices usually fall even faster. The key metric here is market cap versus the value of their Bitcoin holdings (mNAV), which has dropped from 2.5 to 1.2. In other words, their shares no longer trade at a big premium.

While these are painful changes in the short term, they are arguably healthy long term. One potentially positive sign? Fear is peaking.

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 11. That’s a level of "extreme fear" that signals we might be near the bottom.

And some big names are nibbling:

• Michael Saylor just made an $836M purchase, his biggest since July.

• Harvard tripled its Bitcoin ETF exposure to $443M, now its largest disclosed U.S. equity holding.

No one knows where this correction ends, or how long it lasts. But as long as the Fed keeps printing money, some of those new dollars will keep flowing into crypto—either as speculation or as a hedge.

If you're in this for the long haul? Might be a good time to check your conviction… and your asset allocation.

TAX
4. Time Your Giving To Boost Your Tax Break 💸

Planning on donating to charity this holiday season?

Before you send that check, it’s worth checking out these upcoming tax changes. A few new rules take effect in 2026, and they could impact how and when you give.

If you take the standard deduction:

You’ll finally get a tax perk. A new, permanent above-the-line deduction will allow:

• Up to a $1,000 deduction for individuals

• Up to a $2,000 deduction for married couples filing jointly

This deduction begins next year and excludes gifts to donor-advised funds or private foundations.

So if you usually take the standard deduction and donate around the holidays, holding off until January 1 could net you a little bonus.

If you itemize your deductions:

Things get a little trickier.

1) New floor on deductions

Starting in 2026, only the portion of your donations that exceeds 0.5% of your AGI will be deductible. For example, if your household earns $300,000, only the amount above $1,500 would count.

Given this change, bunching your donations (i.e., doubling the gift and making it every other year) could help maximize your deductions.

If you're in a position to do so, it might even make sense to accelerate your giving into 2025 before the change hits.

2) New cap for top earners

If you’re in the 37% tax bracket (that’s $626,350+ for individuals or $751,600+ for couples), your charitable deduction will be capped at 35%. It’s a minor haircut, but still worth noting if you plan to make a large gift.

💡Bottom line: If you itemize, consider bunching and possibly accelerating gifts into 2025. If you don’t, waiting a few extra days into January might be the more tax-efficient move.

TRIVIA
5. How Many Homes Have Lost Value? 🏡

Mortgage rates are still above 6%, keeping the housing market in a deep freeze.

But prices are starting to thaw, particularly in pandemic boomtowns and cities that are aggressively increasing their housing supply.

As of October, what percentage of U.S. homes had lost value over the past year?

Take your guess:

• 27%

• 41%

• 53%

👉 Tap to Reveal the Answer → 

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