💰 Maniac Minute: Gold Explodes As Trust Implodes

Last week, the 10Y Treasury yield spiked sharply, the U.S. dollar slid to a near 3-year low, and gold hit an all-time high on the back of its strongest five-day rally since 2020.

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Good morning, Maniacs!

Tariffs, bond tantrums, and last-minute carveouts sent markets spinning all week. One minute it’s doom and gloom. The next, tech is ripping and gold’s breaking all-time highs—twice.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins even stepped in with a reminder: the Fed stands ready to act if markets lock up. It’s the latest sign that bond yields are raising alarms, and a reason to believe the tariff drama might wrap up by summer.

And don’t forget: Tax Day is Tuesday.

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Let’s dive in!

Market Recap 📈

1-week returns as of Friday (4/11) close

Let’s call last week what it was: chaos in a three-piece suit.

The S&P 500 notched its best week since 2023, closing up 5.7%. But don’t let the green fool you—volatility is raging beneath the surface.

The 10-year Treasury yield spiked sharply, the U.S. dollar slid to a near 3-year low, and gold hit an all-time high on the back of its strongest five-day rally since 2020.

Whether it’s panic or foreign positioning, the direction of flows is clear: out of traditional American “safe-haven” assets and into gold. If the tariff war drags on, expect the precious metal to keep shining.

That said, Wednesday may have marked a turning point.

The 90-day tariff pause lit a fire under stocks—especially tech—and signaled that the Trump Put might be back in play. In my view, the worst-case scenario is now off the table.

But Friday reminded us we’re not out of the woods just yet.

Inflation expectations jumped to 1980s-era highs, and consumer sentiment plunged to its lowest reading since mid-2022. Clearly, Americans are bracing for more pain—and it’ll take more than one good headline to calm those nerves.

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Winners & Losers 🚀

Even with markets swinging like a wrecking ball, a few stocks managed to stand tall—while others got caught in the tariff crossfire. AI darlings soared, insurers flexed their fundamentals, and oil stocks… well, they leaked.

Winners

1. Nvidia ($NVDA) – Market Cap: $2.71T (+17.6%)

Nvidia shares rocketed on Wednesday’s pause in reciprocal tariffs, and even with some volatility, the week closed deep in the green. Analysts say the chokehold $NVDA ( ▼ 6.87% ) has on AI GPUs may let it pass along price hikes. Plus, with possible tariff exemptions for electronics announced Friday, there could be more room to run this week.

2. UnitedHealth ($UNH) – Market Cap: $548.3B (+14.2%)

Health insurers got a clean bill of financial health after regulators bumped 2026 Medicare Advantage payment rates by 5%—well above expectations. That rate hike supercharged $UNH ( ▲ 0.25% ) , and Jim Cramer thinks it may be just the beginning. When uncertainty hits, “boring but American” might be the hottest trade on the tape.

Losers

1. Occidental Petroleum ($OXY) – Market Cap: $37.0B (-7.1%)

It’s been a brutal stretch for $OXY ( ▲ 1.72% ) . Falling oil prices and a pair of Wall Street downgrades have left the stock limping. OPEC is flooding the market, and WTI crude is down nearly $10 in just two weeks. With higher debt and weaker cash flow, Occidental is quickly falling behind the rest of the energy pack.

2. AbbVie ($ABBV) – Market Cap: $309.7B (-6.4%)

Pharma stocks took a gut punch after Trump warned that drug imports could be next on the tariff list. $ABBV ( ▼ 2.9% ) slid as investors braced for new levies on exports from “tax haven” countries like Ireland. Sector-specific tariffs could arrive as early as this week. With AbbVie’s global supply chain in the crosshairs, traders didn’t wait to hit sell.

12 Red Flags That Will Get You Audited 🚨

The IRS isn’t lurking behind every tax return—but some filings do get extra attention.

Think of it like airport security: most people breeze through, but if you’re wearing three coats and sweating profusely, you're getting pulled aside.

Here are the 12 biggest audit red flags to avoid:

💸 Big Deductions on Small Incomes
If you claim $20K in charitable donations on a $30K income, the IRS is gonna squint. Same with massive business expenses or medical deductions that seem wildly out of step with what you earn.

🔢 Round Numbers Everywhere
No one spends exactly $10,000 on travel or $5,000 on office supplies. When every figure ends in a zero, it looks like you’re guessing—and that’s a fast track to a closer look.

📉 Business Losses Every Year
Running a business that never makes money? The IRS might call it a hobby. And if it's a hobby, those juicy deductions disappear.

🚗 Claiming 100% Business Use of a Car
Unless you drive a company-branded van and leave it parked at the office, the IRS won’t believe your car is purely for business. No airtight mileage log = audit risk.

🏠 Home Office Stretching the Truth
Claiming a home office is legit—if it’s used exclusively and regularly for work. But a laptop on your kitchen table doesn’t count.

🌎 Foreign Income or Accounts
Got money overseas? The IRS wants to know. Failing to report foreign income or neglecting FBAR/FACTA rules is a major red flag, especially for high earners.

📄 Mismatched or Missing Info
If your return doesn’t line up with what your employer, bank, or brokerage sent the IRS (W-2s, 1099s, etc.), it’s an automatic red flag. Same for typos in your name, SSN, or filing status.

🧮 Math Errors and Typos
Believe it or not, basic math mistakes can trigger an audit—especially if they conveniently lower what you owe. Use software or a tax pro to double-check everything.

⚠️ Filing Amended Returns (Especially to Lower Taxes)
Changing your return is fine. But doing it frequently—or in a way that suspiciously slashes your tax bill—might make the IRS wonder what you’re hiding.

💰 Large Refunds and NOLs
Huge refund claims or net operating losses (especially when carried over from prior years) are a magnet for IRS scrutiny. You’ll need documentation to back it up.

🗺️ Industry or Regional Outliers
The IRS has benchmarking tools. If your income or deductions are way off the average for your zip code or industry, you might get flagged—even if you’re telling the truth.

📈 Big Income Swings
If your income suddenly spikes or drops from one year to the next, that volatility can trigger a second look. And while we’re at it: yes, high earners do get audited more. If you cross $500,000 in income, expect an extra look.

Bottom Line:
The IRS isn’t out to get you, but they will investigate numbers that don’t make sense.

Be honest, be accurate, and keep good records. Because if you ever do get that audit letter, “I didn’t know” isn’t going to cut it.

Worth The Read 📚

⚔️ A rapid-fire recap of the trade war shows just how quickly tensions snowballed—this one's perfect if you need the summary.

📉 Here’s who got hit hardest by tariffs—from technology stocks to oil prices to the bond market. All 11 S&P sectors fell, and volatility is now at pandemic-era highs.

📈 The VIX just had its 5th biggest spike since 2014. History says that could be bullish for long-term stock returns. Fear = opportunity?

💵 Where to stash cash in 2025 if markets stay rocky. Money-market funds are yielding over 4%—but not all are created equal.

📞 Social Security walks back call center cuts after outrage from seniors and lawmakers. The agency will now keep full phone support.

💴 Yuan hits lowest level since 2007 as China weakens its currency to offset the tariff hit and make exports more attractive.

🎲 Score a Vegas suite for $149—by sitting through a 2-hour Hilton timeshare pitch. Turns out, cheap vacations still exist… if you’re willing to pay in patience.

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The Week Ahead 🔍

It’s a quiet week on the economic front—but don’t expect smooth sailing. Wall Street’s still on edge, and earnings from Netflix, TSMC, and a fleet of banks could add fuel to the fire.

Monday

  • Earnings from Goldman Sachs and M&T Bank

Tuesday

  • Tax Day: Filing deadline for 2024 returns

  • Earnings from Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Citigroup, PNC, United Airlines, Interactive Brokers, and Albertsons

Wednesday

  • Earnings from ASML, Abbott, Prologis, U.S. Bancorp, Kinder Morgan, and Travelers

  • March Retail Sales (est. 1.3% MoM, 2.6% YoY)

Thursday

  • Earnings from TSMC, UnitedHealth, Netflix, American Express, Blackstone, D.R. Horton, State Street, Fifth Third, and Ally Financial

  • March Housing Starts (est. 1.41M)

  • March Building Permits (preliminary est. 1.46M)

Friday

  • No major reports

That’s it for today! If you made it this far, you’re exactly why I do this.

All I ask for? A little feedback. Your comments, questions, and suggestions help me improve—and shape future editions.

Just hit reply or leave a quick review below. It helps more than you know.

Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

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