💰 Maniac Minute: All Eyes On Apple

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Good morning, Maniacs!

Apple’s annual developer conference kicks off today in Cupertino. It’s the company’s go-to stage for unveiling new software, hardware, and the occasional curveball.

This year, the spotlight is on AI.

Despite having iPhones in nearly every pocket, Apple has fallen behind Microsoft, Google, and Meta. Siri is still clunky, and there’s no proprietary model in sight—so the pressure’s on for Tim Cook to deliver.

At the same time, the S&P 500 is knocking on record highs, Friday’s jobs report helped soothe recession fears, and oil jumped due to geopolitical tensions.

The earnings calendar may look quiet, but with CPI, PPI, and ongoing Musk drama, this week could heat up fast.

Let’s dive in! 👇

Market Recap 📈

Stocks rallied into the weekend, powered by a Goldilocks jobs report and cooling tariff jitters. All major indexes posted weekly gains, with small caps leading the charge.

Friday’s labor report showed the U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May while unemployment held steady at 4.2%. The data struck a delicate balance: strong enough to calm recession fears, soft enough to keep the Fed on pause—for now.

The S&P 500 is now less than 2% away from a fresh all-time high, boosted by a revenge rally in tech, consumer, and communication stocks.

Volatility has eased, and some of the same strategists who once screamed “recession” are now claiming the tariff panic may have peaked.

Commodities were mixed:
🛢️ Oil surged as Russia-Ukraine tensions escalated, threatening supply.
🥈 Gold and ₿itcoin were flat, while silver got its moment to shine.

Meanwhile, Musk and Trump’s bromance went full soap opera.

The world’s richest man and most powerful man traded barbs, leaving employees, investors, and even the Doge team in flux. Elon has since deleted his Epstein tweet (yes, that one), but the drama may not be over.

In contrast, U.S.-China trade talks are reportedly making quiet headway. That’s a welcome shift for importers, consumers, and strained supply chains.

Scott Bessent, who allegedly gave Elon his black eye, is leading those negotiations. The only question now? Whether China or the former “first buddy” patches things up first.

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Winners & Losers 🚀

The market was equal parts rally and reckoning this week. AI partnerships soared, whiskey soured, and an iconic athleisure brand found itself running uphill.

Winners

1. CoreWeave ($CRWV) – Market Cap: $64.9B (+25.9%)

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 3.78% ) locked in a $7B hosting deal with Applied Digital $APLD ( ▲ 8.54% ) and raised $2B through junk bonds—paying a spicy 9.25% yield to do it.

The AI cloud provider is growing like wildfire, with the stock up 4x since April. But it's burning serious cash to get there. Net losses doubled last quarter, and liabilities now top $18B.

Investors are chasing the momentum, but with a debt-to-equity ratio of 9.9, the runway may not be as long as it looks.

2. Manchester United ($MANU) – Market Cap: $2.8B (+15.8%)

Manchester United $MANU ( ▲ 18.83% ) just posted a rare win—on its income statement. The British football club finished a painful 15th in the Premier League and missed out on Champions League money after a 1-0 loss to Tottenham.

But a deep Europa League run juiced Q3 revenue 17% higher, and the club raised full-year profit guidance to pre-pandemic levels. Investors cheered. Fans? Still not thrilled.

Losers

1. Lululemon Athletica ($LULU) – Market Cap: $31.9B (-16.2%)

Lulu $LULU ( ▼ 19.81% ) is getting stretched thin. Earnings and revenue cleared the bar, but a sharply lower profit outlook dragged the stock to its worst day since March 2020.

The company pointed to a softer consumer environment, but also says it plans to offset tariff challenges with strategic price hikes.

Some analysts believe Lululemon has the pricing power to make it work. But with same-store sales down 2% in the Americas despite increased markdowns, that confidence feels misplaced.

2. Brown-Forman ($BF-B) – Market Cap: $13.3B (-15.7%)

The Jack Daniel’s maker took a stiff shot to the portfolio. Quarterly earnings and revenue missed expectations, and guidance was a buzzkill: sales are projected to decline this year.

Brown-Forman $BF.B ( ▲ 3.16% ) is grappling with rising cannabis use, weight-loss drug trends, and younger generations cutting back. In short? Spirits are down.

The Death Of The Index Effect ⚰️

S&P 500 changes usually make waves, but this time, it was the absence of change that made headlines. On Friday, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced no new additions or deletions in its quarterly rebalance.

That’s a big deal for names like Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 3.27% ) , which rallied 13% this week on speculation it would make the cut. When it didn’t, the stock dropped 6% after hours.

Why do these announcements matter so much? Well, for decades, getting added to the S&P 500 meant instant gains.

But a new paper, What Happened to the Index Effect?, says that edge has quietly disappeared.

Here’s why the index effect is dead, or at least on life support:

📉 No more pop: From 1990-2005, new additions enjoyed sharp announcement-day jumps and long-term gains. Since 2010? Nada. Recent additions barely budge.

🧠 Markets got smarter: Hedge funds and arbitrage traders now sniff out inclusions early and price in the move before passive funds can pile in.

🌊 Liquidity no longer spikes: In the past, index inclusion made stocks more tradable. Today, the effect on volume and spreads is minimal.

🔒 Still a black box: The S&P 500 committee still uses discretion in their methodology, though there are rules around profitability, size, and sector fit.

⚙️ Structural shift: With better data, faster trading, and more transparency, pricing inefficiencies are increasingly rare—and increasingly fleeting.

Bottom line? The S&P 500 stamp of approval still carries prestige, but not the premium it once did. In today’s market, even index-level buzz gets priced in fast.

Worth The Read 📚

🌦️ Weather Channel earns top spot as most trusted media source, while the National Enquirer clings to last place. Where does your favorite land on the list?

💔 Five costly mistakes people make during divorce include overspending settlements, ignoring hidden assets, and letting emotions drag the process out for years.

📉 Bessent’s push to loosen bank rules could flood the Treasury market with new buyers. The goal? Keep long-term rates in check.

💸 Obamacare premiums are set to spike next year as subsidies expire, new GOP tax rules kick in, and insurers prep for a sicker pool.

🔁 Boomerang hires are booming with employers and workers both choosing the devil they know in a rocky job market.

🏦 Failing isn’t the problem. Contagion is. The Fed’s new regulatory head is pushing for safer ways to let banks go under.

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The Week Ahead 🔍

CPI hits Wednesday, followed by PPI on Thursday, and consumer sentiment on Friday. Earnings are thin, but GameStop, Oracle, and Adobe should keep things interesting.

Monday

• No major reports

Tuesday

• Earnings from GameStop

Wednesday

• Earnings from Oracle, Chewy, and Victoria’s Secret

• May Consumer Price Index (est. 0.2% MoM, 2.5% YoY)

• May Core CPI (est. 0.3% MoM, 2.9% YoY)

• May U.S. Federal Budget (est. -$318.0B)

Thursday

• Earnings from Adobe

• May Producer Price Index (est. 0.2% MoM, 2.6% YoY)

Friday

• June Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary est. 53.5)

That’s it for today! If you made it this far, you’re exactly why I do this.

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Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.