💰 5 Fact Friday: Is This Dot-Com 2.0?

OUR PARTNER: SIREN BIOTECHNOLOGY
A Biotech Company To Watch: Siren Biotechnology

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MARKETS
1. The CAPE Ratio Isn’t Worth Losing Sleep Over 😴

Earlier this week, the CAPE ratio crossed 40, a level not seen since the dot-com bubble. Then, Fed Chair Jerome Powell added fuel to the fire, warning: “By many measures… equity prices are fairly highly valued.”

Naturally, financial pundits started sounding alarms, and a three-day correction followed. But before you sell your stocks and flee to the hills, let’s take a deep breath and understand what this all means.

The CAPE ratio, also known as the Shiller P/E, was created by Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller. It compares today’s prices to the average earnings over the past 10 years.

Now, I don’t make it my business to contradict Nobel laureates, but here’s why I think you should stay cool:

1. Earnings Still Drive Returns

Over the past decade:

• Earnings and dividends made up 75% of the S&P 500’s total return

• P/E expansion? Just the other 25%

Plus, much of the change in valuation can be explained by real gains in business fundamentals.

In short: price growth has mostly followed business performance, not investor hype.

2. Historical ≠ Helpful (At Least Not Always)

Historical measures are relevant when all else is equal. But as one of my favorite financial reporters Sam Ro likes to say: “All else is rarely equal.”

Today’s top companies have a lot more going for them than the businesses of decades past:

• Higher margins

• Greater diversification

• Less debt

• Fewer employees

• Lower fixed costs

• And now, the potential for further deregulation and efficiency gains from AI

Bank of America analysts even argue we should recalibrate our expectations: "Perhaps we should anchor to today's multiples as the new normal rather than expecting mean reversion to a bygone era."

3. CAPE Can Be Misleading

The CAPE ratio smooths out temporary earnings spikes by averaging the past 10 years of results. That helps avoid overreacting to short-term noise.

But when earnings are growing faster than normal, and that growth is sustainable, the CAPE ratio can give a false signal. It may suggest stocks are overvalued, even when businesses are genuinely improving.

It is a lagging indicator, not a crystal ball.

4. Bullish Bias Isn’t Blind Optimism

The market tends to go up over time.

America’s dominance in global trade, focus on innovation, deep financial markets, nearly $8 trillion dollars in sideline cash, increasing investor participation, and the selectiveness of our top indices all serve as long-term tailwinds.

And while stocks can certainly correct, like they did this week, pullbacks are a healthy part of bull markets. Not signs of collapse.

Bottom Line: Yes, the CAPE is high. But so are profit margins, cash flows, and operational efficiency. We’re not in 2000 anymore, folks. Be cautious, stay informed — but don’t let a single ratio cloud your long-term view.

DEAL CORNER
2. Wall Street’s Deal Sheet Of The Week 📰

💵 Tether Targets the Top Spot: Tether is raising $20B privately, aiming for a $500 billion valuation. In the banking world, that would leapfrog Bank of America and land behind only JPMorgan in size — all for a stablecoin issuer. [Read]

🧠 Nvidia + OpenAI = $100B AI Overload: Nvidia is investing up to $100 billion to build 10 gigawatts of AI supercomputing with OpenAI. That’s roughly 4 to 5 million GPUs, or enough power to run 8 million US homes. CEO Jensen Huang called it “the largest computing project in history.” [Read]

🔋 US Eyes Stake in Lithium Americas: The US government may take a 10% equity stake in Lithium Americas, the miner behind what could become the largest lithium project in the Western Hemisphere. The move would reshape a $2.3B DOE loan into ownership — and tighten America’s grip on battery metals. [Read]

📱 Trump Approves $14B TikTok Deal: President Trump formally signed off on a $14 billion deal to spin off TikTok’s US operations. A new US-based joint venture will be controlled by Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz — with six of seven board seats held by Americans. [Read]

🏠 Compass Merges with Anywhere Real Estate: In a $1.6B deal, Compass is acquiring legacy giant Anywhere Real Estate, combining Century 21, Coldwell Banker, Corcoran, and Sotheby’s under one tech-powered roof. The merger will create the world’s largest brokerage, handling 1.2M home sales a year. [Read]

💊 Pfizer Bets $7.3B on Weight Loss Drugs: Pfizer is buying Metsera for up to $7.3 billion, aiming to catch up in the weight loss drug race. After missing out on the Ozempic wave, this gives Pfizer a second shot at the booming GLP-1 market. [Read]

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POLITICS
3. $100K H-1B Fee Could Reshape Tech Hiring 🌍

President Trump just signed an executive order slapping a $100,000 fee on all new H-1B visa applications from abroad, starting with the 2026 lottery.

The White House says it’s about protecting American jobs and wages — especially in a year when tech giants are cutting staff while still hiring overseas.

For context:

• The H-1B program is capped at 85,000 visas per year, with application fees previously around $1,500.

• Tech giants like Amazon, Meta, Apple, and Nvidia used more than 35,000 H-1Bs last year. Amazon alone accounted for 14,000.

While the White House frames it as a move to support U.S. college grads, others see long-term risk:

• Startups say the cost could be a death blow to recruiting top-tier engineers.

• Gary Tan, CEO of Y Combinator, called it a “massive gift to every overseas tech hub.”

• Companies may simply offshore more roles, shifting innovation abroad to avoid the fee.

• India’s tech lobby warned of “considerable uncertainty,” as 71% of visas go to Indian nationals.

As investors, our job isn’t to argue what should happen — it’s to figure out what will happen, and how it affects business prospects.

PERSONAL FINANCE
4. Finding Value In Luxury Credit Cards 💳

Luxury credit cards are like all-you-can-eat buffets: the value is there… but only if you’re hungry enough to use it.

The Chase Sapphire Reserve ($795 annual fee) and the Amex Platinum ($895 annual fee) have revamped their perks, but are they worth it for everyday spenders?

Here’s how I’d break them down:

Chase Sapphire Reserve

High-value, easy-to-use perks:

• 3x points on dining, 4x on flights/hotels, 8x through Chase Travel

• $300 annual travel credit (automatic and broad)

• $300 DoorDash credits ($25 per month, plus free DashPass)

• $300 StubHub credit ($150 twice per year)

• $120 Lyft credits ($10 per month)

• Priority Pass lounge access + Chase Sapphire Lounges

• Travel protections: primary car rental coverage, trip delay, baggage delay, trip cancellation

• Welcome bonus: 125,000 points after $6,000 spend in 3 months

Lower-value, niche perks:

• $500 credit for stays with The Edit ($250 twice per year, 2 night minimum)

• $300 annual dining credit ($150 twice a year at Sapphire Reserve Exclusive Tables)

• $120 Global Entry, TSA PreCheck, or NEXUS credit (every 4 years)

• Complimentary Apple TV+ and Apple Music

• Peloton bonus points + $10 monthly credit

• Exclusive dining reservations via OpenTable

• Hotel elite statuses (IHG Platinum, Edit Collection extras)

• Upgrade opportunities after $75K annual spend (IHG Diamond, $500 Southwest credit, $250 Chase Shops credit)

Verdict: Between travel, food delivery, and lounges, you can easily recoup $700+ each year. Add in strong insurance coverage and the occasional StubHub or hotel benefit, and the cost is justifiable.

Thinking of applying? You can check out the current offer here.

Amex Platinum

High-value, easy-to-use perks:

• 5x points on flights booked direct and prepaid hotels

• $400 Resy dining credits ($100 quarterly)

• $200 Uber Cash + $120 Uber One (rides or Eats)

• $300 Lululemon credit (quarterly $75 chunks)

• $240 digital entertainment credit (Disney+, Hulu, NYT, etc.)

• $200 airline fee credit

• $155 Walmart+ credit

• Lounge access: Centurion, Delta Sky Club (10 visits), Priority Pass

• Welcome bonus: 175,000 points after $8,000 spend in 6 months

Lower-value, niche perks:

• $600 hotel credit on select properties ($300 twice per year, 2 night minimum)

• $300 Equinox credit

• $200 Oura Ring credit

• $199 CLEAR Plus credit (annual)

• $120 Global Entry or $85 TSA PreCheck credit (every 4 years)

• $100 Saks Fifth Avenue credit ($50 twice per year)

• Hilton Gold + Marriott Gold elite status

• Travel protections: secondary car rental coverage, cell phone protection, trip delay, trip cancellation

Verdict: Despite the higher price tag, I actually find it easier to squeeze consistent value from the Platinum. But for anyone who doesn’t dine out or use Uber, it risks being an expensive ornament.

Thinking of applying? You can check out the current offer here.

Final Takeaway

Both cards can deliver serious value, but only if the perks overlap with how you already spend. For me, that means holding the Amex Platinum and the Chase Sapphire Preferred (for primary car rental insurance at just $95).

But the card I’m eyeing next? The Fold B*tcoin Credit Card.

With 2% back in B*tcoin, it will turn my rewards into an investment. There’s a waitlist — and yes, I’m on it.

STOCKS
5. Guess That Stock 🕵️‍♂️

You may know this company for powering China’s e-commerce boom. But these days, it’s making headlines for its AI models and global data centers.

Can you guess the stock?

1. This Chinese tech giant is the fourth largest non-U.S. public company, behind only Saudi Aramco, TSMC, and Tencent.

2. It’s best known for its wholesale marketplace that connects global buyers with Chinese suppliers — kind of like Amazon, but for businesses.

3. The stock has surged 110% this year, thanks to a massive push into cloud computing and generative AI.

4. The company just launched Qwen3-Max, its most powerful open-source AI model yet. LMArena ranks it behind only Google’s Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude, and OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

5. Its founder, Jack Ma, famously dressed as a rock star at company events… and even more famously disappeared for a while after criticizing Chinese regulators.

Got a guess? Tap here for the answer → 

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