💰 5 Fact Friday: Could DOGE Put $5K In Your Pocket?

MARKETS
1. Retail Says Sell, Institutions Say Buy 🧐

The S&P 500 hit back-to-back all-time highs on Tuesday and Wednesday, shaking off geopolitical risks and riding the momentum of strong corporate earnings.

However, while institutional investors continue to buy stocks, retail investors are fearful. In fact, 47.3% expect stocks to fall over the next six months, the highest level since November 2023.

Why the disconnect? Here are three possible reasons:

1. Actions Speak Louder Than Words

Institutional investors aren’t just talking about optimism—they’re putting cash to work. Bank of America reports that fund managers have cut cash holdings to their lowest levels since 2010.

Meanwhile, retail investor sentiment is measured by a survey. But just because retail investors say they’re bearish doesn’t mean they’re selling—cognitive dissonance is common in investing.

2. Politics May Be Clouding The Picture

Retail bearishness has increased every week since the inauguration. This could be due to tariff concerns, or it may reflect the growing partisan divide in economic sentiment.

Joanne Hsu, director of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, put it bluntly: “The way consumers interpret ongoing economic trends continues to be colored by partisan perspectives.”

While it’s easy to feel optimistic when your party is in power or lose confidence when it’s not, remember that letting politics dictate your investment decisions is a losing strategy.

3. It’s Not Just U.S. Stocks

Institutional investors may be taking a broader view—as they aren’t only bullish on domestic markets. There’s a bigger global story unfolding, and we’ll dig into that in the next segment.

So, while retail is nervous, the pros are all in—betting on stocks, trimming cash, and tuning out the noise.

Who’s right? Well, keep in mind that the stock market is not a coin toss. Sure, any given day is green just 53% of the time. However…

• Over six months, stocks have risen 71% of the time

• Over 1 year, stocks have risen 75% of the time

• Over 10 years, stocks have risen 94% of the time

• Over 20 years, stocks have risen 100% of the time 

So, if history is any guide, the folks putting money to work usually come out ahead.

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INTERNATIONAL
2. Global Investors Pivot To Europe 🌍

For years, U.S. stocks have dominated global returns—but in 2025, the tables are turning.

The Stoxx Europe 600 is up nearly 10% year-to-date, more than double the S&P 500’s gain. Meanwhile, fund managers are shifting their bets overseas, with European equity inflows hitting a two-year high last week.

So, why is Europe suddenly the market to watch?

1. Defense Stocks On Fire

With Trump threatening to cut U.S. military aid, European governments are expected to ramp up defense spending. The region’s Aerospace & Defense index has surged 19% this year, helping push the broader Stoxx 600 to record highs.

2. Rate Cut Optimism

While the Fed is pulling back on rate cut expectations, the European Central Bank (ECB) is staying the course.

By 2026, the Fed’s expected rate is 4.0%, while the ECB’s is projected at just 1.9%—a bullish signal for European stocks.

3. Closing The Valuation Gap

European stocks have long traded at a discount relative to U.S. equities, but that gap may be shrinking.

In December, surveyed investors were a net 25% underweight Europe. Today, that’s flipped to a 12% overweight position, signaling a shift in sentiment and exposure.

With 45% of Bank of America’s survey respondents expecting stronger economic growth in Europe this year, the big question remains:

Is this a temporary shift or the start of Europe’s comeback?

STOCKS
3. Kim Kardashian Gives Nike A Makeover 💅

Nike is betting big on Kim Kardashian—and investors are eating it up.

The sportswear giant just announced NikeSkims, a new partnership with Kim’s billion-dollar shapewear brand. The move aims to shake up women’s activewear and, ideally, shake Nike out of its sales slump.

Winning Back The Women’s Market

Nike’s been down bad. Sales dropped 8% last quarter and its stock fell 29% last year, losing ground to competitors like On, Hoka, Lululemon, and Alo Yoga.

Skims, on the other hand, is thriving—with an estimated $5.3 billion valuation and recent expansions into men’s wear and high-profile sports sponsorships.

NikeSkims will launch with training-focused apparel, footwear, and accessories, blending Nike’s performance tech with Skims’ signature sculpting designs.

The goal? Convert Kim’s loyal fanbase into Nike customers and claw back market share in women’s athleisure.

Game-Changer Or Gimmick?

Nike stock jumped 6% on the news, adding $6 billion in market cap—more than Skims’ entire valuation.

The company is hoping that KK can do for women’s activewear what MJ did for basketball sneakers. But is Kim really the next Jordan? Or is Nike just grasping at Skims?

We’ll get our first look when the collection drops this spring.

ECONOMY
4. Tariffs Won’t Cut It, But DOGE Can Help 🔪

Trump has floated the idea of scrapping the income tax and funding the government entirely through tariffs. In theory, it sounds simple—tax foreign goods instead of Americans—but in reality, the math doesn’t add up.

Right now, the U.S. pulls in about $3 trillion from income taxes. Coincidentally, total imports into the U.S. are also around $3 trillion. So, to replace income taxes, we would need tariffs of at least 100% on all imports.

The problem?

Higher prices reduce demand, which reduces tariff revenue. Economists estimate that no matter how high tariffs go, they’d max out at $1 trillion in revenue—far short of what’s needed.

Could the Department Of Government Efficiency bridge the gap? Maybe.

If we eliminated all personal income taxes (-$2.4 trillion) and maxed out tariffs (+$1 trillion), DOGE would need to cut $1.4 trillion annually just to maintain the already massive budget deficit.

While that idea remains a long shot, another proposal is gaining traction: the DOGE Dividend.

Hedge fund manager James Fishback proposed using 20% of DOGE’s spending cuts to send every taxpaying household a check—funded exclusively through savings.

The logic?

• Restitution. If the government wasted your money, you should get some back.

• Work incentives. Since the tax refund is limited to households paying federal income tax, it could encourage more people to enter the workforce.

• A watchdog effect. If taxpayers see direct benefits from spending cuts, they’ll support them—and help hold the government accountable.

Fishback believes that buy-in from this program would:

• Give DOGE the chance to meet its $2 trillion savings goal

• Put up to $5,000 back in every taxpayer’s pocket

• Allow 80% of the savings to help balance the budget and pay down debt

It’s not quite a tax-free future, but hey, a government rebate instead of a bill? Now that’s a change worth considering.

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STOCKS
5. Guess That Stock 🕵️‍♂️

This retail giant raked in $183 billion last quarter, but Wall Street wanted more. Can you name the company?

1. In 2012, this company surpassed Exxon Mobil to become the S&P 500’s top revenue generator. But recently, an online rival took the crown.

2. Despite reporting 10% EPS growth in Q4, the stock dropped as much as 7% after earnings, as its outlook for 2025 fell short of expectations.

3. While its grocery business—making up 60% of total sales—remains strong, e-commerce is the real star. Online delivery, in-store pickup, and a booming ad business helped drive 20% year-over-year growth.

4. The company’s push to win over higher-income shoppers is paying off, with households earning $100K+ making up 75% of recent market share gains.

5. Its founding family is now the richest in the world, surpassing even the Hermès heirs, with a cumulative net worth of $432 billion.

Got a guess? Tap here to reveal the answer → 

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