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- š° Maniac Minute: The Mystery Biotech Up 17,650% YTD
š° Maniac Minute: The Mystery Biotech Up 17,650% YTD
Revenue? Less than $5 million. Profits? Nope. The only known catalyst is insider buying from CEO Yat-Gai Au back in March.
Good morning, Maniacs!
The S&P 500 just enjoyed its best May since the Goosebumps era. Unfortunately, markets ended the week with more twists than a Choose Your Own Adventure book.
We got courtroom tariff whiplash, a surprise TrumpāPowell powwow, and āno more Mr. Nice Guyā tweets as the China battle reheats.
Elsewhere, Ulta crushed earnings, Temu tanked, and one mystery biotech is up nearly 18,000% with zero explanation. Plus, the Equity Risk Premium reached a level thatās⦠less than inspiring.
šØ Before we dive in, cast your vote in the Market Sentiment Survey below. Results will be shared on Friday.
Whatās your market outlook for June? |

Market Recap š
The S&P 500 closed the month with a 6% gaināits best May since 1990ābut June is expected to test the rallyās resolve. After all, last week left plenty unresolved.
It started on Wednesday, when a trade court blocked the administrationās tariffs, sending stocks higher. But by Thursday, a higher court had already reversed the decision.
Soon after, trade war headlines piled up: Chinese visa restrictions, stalled rare earth negotiations, and whispers of new tech sanctions.
Tensions peaked Friday, when Trump claimed China āTOTALLY VIOLATEDā the May 12 truce and vowed to ditch his āMr. Nice Guyā stance. Translation? More tariffs could be on deck.
Markets didnāt love it.
Still, bulls found a silver lining in the data. Aprilās PCE reportāthe Fedās preferred inflation measureāshowed monthly price growth is nearly flat.
Core PCE dropped to 2.5% year-over-year, inching closer to the Fedās 2% target. However, consumer spending slowed and the savings rate ticked up, pointing to a more cautious U.S. shopper.
Meanwhile, President Trump and Fed Chair Powell sat down at the White House for their first meeting in 2025.
While the Fed remains independentāand Powell is a staunch defender of thatāTrump likely made his case for lower rates ahead of the next decision on June 18th.
Will we get a rate cut in June? |

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Winners & Losers š
The market handed out glow-ups and gut-punches this week. Beauty boomed, biotech baffled, and clothing importers got clobbered by tariffs.
Winners
1. Regencell Bioscience ($RGC) ā Market Cap: $11.4B (+56.6%)
Biotech bubbles donāt come with warning labelsāthatās why Iām here. Regencellās latest run-up brings its year-to-date gain to a casual +17,650%.
Revenue? Less than $5 million. Profits? Nope. The only known catalyst is insider buying from CEO Yat-Gai Au back in March.
With a very low float, tons of momentum, and no news to justify the valuation, $RGC ( ā² 18.36% ) carries the kind of risk that only Reddit could love. If youāre tempted to chase, donāt say you werenāt warned.
2. Ulta Beauty ($ULTA) ā Market Cap: $21.2B (+15.8%)
Ulta $ULTA ( ā² 11.78% ) beat earnings thanks to fragrance sales and exclusive brand launches. With increases in both average ticket size and transaction volume, same-store sales climbed 2.9%āwell above Wall Streetās flat forecast.
CEO Kecia Steelman called beauty a ācomfort and escapeā from stress, but warned of āuncertainty around how consumer demand could evolve.ā
Losers
1. The Gap ($GAP) ā Market Cap: $8.4B (-21.6%)
The Gap $GAP ( ā¼ 20.18% ) crushed its Q1 earnings, but the market didnāt care. Why? One word: tariffs.
The retailer warned that new China tariffs could cost it up to $300 million this year, with most of the pain coming in the second half.
Even with mitigation efforts (i.e., diversifying supply chains), management expects a hit of $100ā$150 million. The drag on profit spooked shareholders and immediately sent the stock into the red.
2. PDD Holdings ($PDD) ā Market Cap: $137.0B (-19.1%)
Temuās discount dominance is over. Tariffs and the repeal of the de minimis exemption forced $PDD ( ā¼ 1.81% ) to raise prices in April. That, unsurprisingly, caused downloads and active users to plunge 73% and 43%, respectively.
The result? A 47% drop in profit and revenue that missed expectations by over $1 billion. With Temu now pivoting to U.S.-based warehouses to survive, itās not just margins at riskāitās the entire business model.

Equity Risk Premium Hits A New Low šØ
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is a handy tool for gauging how much extra return investors are getting for choosing stocks over risk-free government bonds.
Right now? Itās flashing caution.
At just 2.35%, todayās ERP is well below its historical median of 5.18%. In other words, investors are paying more for stocks and getting less back in return.
Here, the ERP is calculated by subtracting the yield on 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) from the S&P 500ās forward earnings yield.
Letās break that down:
The 10-Year TIPS yield represents the return youād get from 10-Year government bonds after adjusting for inflation, currently around 2.15%.
This is considered the ārisk-freeā rate of return, since inflation is removed from the equation and the U.S. government can always pay you back (worst case, they print the money).
The forward earnings yield is the S&Pās expected profit over the next year divided by its current price. Think of it as your projected return per dollar invested.
With the market trading at 22x forward earnings, that works out to a yield of roughly 4.50% (1 Ć· 22 = 0.045).
Subtracting TIPS (2.15%) from the earnings yield (4.50%) gives us an ERP of 2.35%āthe expected āpremiumā the market offers to take on the risk of stocks.
As that premium shrinks, the case for loading up on equities gets a lot less convincing. At some point, investors may decide the reward just isnāt worth the ride.
At 2.35%, the ERP is near historic lows. That doesnāt mean dumping your portfolio, but it is a signal to tread carefully.
Hereās how to approach it:
Avoid going all-in on equities. The upside isnāt as compelling right now.
Favor income-generating plays, like dividend stocks or undervalued sectors such as energy.
Consider adding exposure to bonds that offer solid returns with less potential risk.
If youāre investing for the long haul? Keep dollar-cost averagingābut be valuation-conscious.
When the reward for risk is this slim, patience and discipline matter more than ever.

Worth The Read š
š Whatās inside the latest tax bill? Tax cuts, higher SALT caps, tip income exclusions, and a $1K āTrump accountā for newbornsāplus sweeteners for seniors and car buyers.
š Nearly a quarter of Americans are functionally unemployed, according to a new metric that includes underpaid workers and job seekers stuck below the poverty line.
š° Trump administration drops crypto guardrails for 401(k)s. Employers can now add digital assets, meme coins and all, without added scrutiny.
š Mortgage demand rises despite higher mortgage rates, with purchase applications up 2% last week and 18% above year-ago levels.
š„ Gold could hit $4,000 by 2026, says Goldman Sachs, citing tight supply and inflation fears. The bank calls the metal a safer hedge than Bitcoin.
š§¾ Tariff workaround gains steam as importers dust off a 1988 loophole known as the āfirst sale rule.ā
š Crypto ownership surges in 2025, with Trumpās Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, spot ETFs, and a memecoin boom driving global adoption.

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The Week Ahead š
Itās a lighter slate, but thereās still plenty to watch. Broadcom, CrowdStrike, and Lululemon headline earnings, while Fridayās jobs report will give the market its latest labor market checkup.
Monday
Earnings from Campbellās
May ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 48.7)
Tuesday
Earnings from CrowdStrike, Hewlett Packard, and Dollar General
April JOLTs Job Openings (est. 7.05M)
April Factory Orders (est. -2.2% MoM)
Wednesday
Earnings from Dollar Tree and Five Below
May ADP Employment Change (est. 70K)
May ISM Services PMI (est. 52.0)
Thursday
Earnings from Broadcom, Lululemon, and DocuSign
April Balance of Trade (est. -$132B)
Friday
Earnings from GameStop
May Non-Farm Payrolls (est. 130K)
May Unemployment Rate (est. 4.2%)
May Labor Participation Rate (est. 62.6%)

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Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac šø
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