💰 Maniac Minute: 5% Yields ≠ 5-Star Retirement

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Good morning, Maniacs!

Tariffs, deficits, and nuclear reactors—oh my. 🧨

Markets hit the brakes after a week of tweet-fueled turbulence. Treasury yields popped, nuclear stocks soared, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high—and analysts say we may be entering a true “stock picker’s market.”

Also inside: why Fannie and Freddie flew, FICO got whacked, and I don’t recommend going all-in on Treasuries (even at 5%).

Let’s dive in! 👇

Market Recap 📈

Just when things looked stable, the macro mayhem came roaring back. The Dow and Nasdaq each dropped 2.5%, while the S&P 500 fell 2.6% across a four-day losing streak.

First came the debt bomb.

Trump’s “big, beautiful” bill passed the House, and the $3.8 trillion projected deficit rattled bond markets. Treasury yields spiked, with the 10-year closing at 4.51% and the 30-year touching 5.15% before easing to 5.04%.

Then came the tariff threats.

Trump floated a 50% levy on all EU imports starting June 1, accusing the bloc of “stalling” and “taking advantage” of the U.S.

He also took aim at Apple, warning that iPhones built abroad could face a 25% tariff. Apple fell 3%, dragging down tech and reigniting trade war jitters—just days after China talks had calmed markets.

As headlines flew, markets scrambled:

• ☢️ Nuclear stocks exploded. Oklo, NuScale, and uranium miners jumped as Trump signed orders to accelerate reactor approvals.

• 🌞 Solar stocks got torched. Sunrun, Enphase, and SolarEdge cratered after the House bill proposed axing rooftop solar tax credits.

• 🥇 Gold rallied as a safe haven investment amid rising deficits and geopolitical stress.

• ₿ Bitcoin broke a new all-time high, driven by record ETF inflows and drying exchange supply.

And here’s one more shift to watch: stock correlations are breaking down.

With macro shocks hitting industries unevenly, analysts say we may be entering a true stock picker’s market—where company-specific earnings and catalysts finally matter more than momentum and headlines.

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Winners & Losers 🚀

This week’s biggest market moves had one thing in common: policy. Whether it was tariffs, trade, or talk of reform, government intervention sent stocks flying—or flailing.

Winners

1. Federal National Mortgage Association ($FNMA) – Market Cap: $12.7B (+62.1%)

$FNMA ( ▼ 4.0% ) (aka Fannie Mae) logged its best week since 2009 after Trump floated plans to bring Fannie and Freddie Mac back to public markets. The government-sponsored enterprises have been under federal control since the 2008 housing crash.

Trump now says they’re “throwing off a lot of CASH and the time would seem to be right.” Somewhere, Bill Ackman is celebrating—Fannie is up 235% YTD, Freddie 137%.

2. United States Steel ($X) – Market Cap: $11.8B (+28.9%)

$X ( ▲ 1.98% ) soared after Trump announced the company would “REMAIN in America” and keep its HQ in Pittsburgh. The original $14.1B takeover by Japan’s Nippon Steel was blocked by Biden on national security grounds. But Trump’s statement suggests a restructured deal may be back on the table.

Details were light, but Trump’s framing as a “partnership” boosted confidence that a version of the deal will move forward.

Losers

1. Fair Isaac Corporation ($FICO) – Market Cap: $41.2B (-23.0%)

$FICO ( ▼ 11.26% ) , the company behind the FICO credit score, plunged after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte questioned last year’s price hikes. He also raised concerns about the need to pull scores from all three credit bureaus on mortgage applications.

Despite a 41% increase in the FICO score fee (from $3.50 to $4.95), FICO insists it’s economical at under 1% of closing costs. Still, the stock sank as the prospect of fewer score pulls threatens future revenue.

2. Deckers Outdoor ($DECK) – Market Cap: $15.1B (-21.0%)

$DECK ( ▲ 7.83% ) , the parent of Hoka and UGG, dropped hard after lowering Q1 guidance and pulling its full-year forecast.

The company cited “macro uncertainty” and shifting trade policy, likely tied to new tariffs. With a major manufacturing footprint in China and revenue guidance now trailing estimates, investors stepped to the sidelines fast.

Don’t Lock Yourself Into A 5% Future ⚠️

With Treasury yields over 5%, the appeal is obvious: low-risk income, tax advantages, and a big dose of simplicity.

But before you toss your whole net worth into a 30-year bond, let’s talk about what that really means for your future.

Tempting? Sure. Smart? Not so fast.

This strategy completely ignores the silent killer: inflation.

Let’s assume the Fed nails its 2% inflation target. That $100K/year slowly becomes worth less and less in today’s dollars:

• Year 1: $98,039

• Year 10: $82,035

• Year 30: just $55,207

And your $2 million principal? It’ll be worth $1.1 million in today’s dollars when you finally get it back. Translation: your lifestyle erodes—every single year.

Now compare that to a more traditional mix: 60% stocks and 40% bonds (at 5% yields).

In this case, you invest $1.2M in stocks, $800K in Treasuries, and withdraw the same annual income as the “safe” plan. But here’s the difference: your equities compound for three decades.

How does that change things, you ask?

• Total income: The same $2.2M over 29 years

• Ending balance: Not $1.1M… but $7.4M

That’s a $6+ million difference!

Bottom line: Treasuries have their place. But turning your entire portfolio into a “safe” 5% annuity isn’t retirement—it’s regression. Unless you’re ultra-wealthy or balancing out risk elsewhere, it’s one of the most expensive mistakes you can make.

What do you think? Should I do more Tweet Teardowns? Reply and let me know!

Worth The Read 📚

📉 Does the U.S. debt downgrade matter? Fidelity analysts say growing deficits and rising interest payments could chip away at confidence over time.

💸 David Rubenstein says debt beats tariffs as the bigger long-term risk. The Carlyle co-founder warns that America’s reserve currency status isn’t guaranteed.

🎓 Trump’s MAGA savings accounts promise every newborn $1,000—but are they better than a 529 plan?

🤖 Elon Musk says he’s not going anywhere, pledging to stay on as Tesla CEO for at least five more years.

🧬 23andMe gets scooped up by Regeneron in a $256M fire sale. The deal includes the firm’s genetic database, but not the pharmacy and telehealth business.

🐉 Epic Universe brings dragons to life with animatronics, drone flights, and immersive worlds. Universal’s $7B bet might just redefine the future of theme parks.

🏠 Home prices may finally fall after years of relentless gains. Rising inventory and buyer pushback could lead to the first dip since 2023.

4 Reasons The Dollar Could Collapse

If you’ve noticed that your dollars don’t seem to go as far as they used to, you’re not alone. Millions of Americans are in the same boat.

The recent inflation rate, the highest in over 40 years, was a wake up call that made many people realize that the financial stability they had taken for granted for decades no longer exists.

The US government has been tempted to use its reserve currency status to its financial advantage. This has resulted in massive devaluation of the dollar.

A way to help protect your dollars is to diversify your money with assets that don’t depend upon the strength and health of the dollar for their value. Precious metals like gold and silver, for instance, are in demand around the world 24/7 and aren’t dependent upon the value of the dollar.

To find out reasons why experts are predicting the collapse of the dollar, request your free digital copy of the 4 Reasons the Dollar Could Crash eBook.

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The Week Ahead 🔍

After a long weekend, markets jump straight into durable goods, Nvidia’s earnings, a key GDP revision, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—all within four trading days.

Monday

• Markets closed for Memorial Day

Tuesday

• Earnings from PDD and AutoZone

• April Durable Goods Orders (est. -6.8% MoM)

• March Case-Shiller Home Prices (est. 4.2% YoY)

Wednesday

• Earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce, HP, Pure Storage, Dick’s Sporting Goods, U-Haul, e.l.f Beauty, Abercrombie, and Macy’s

• May FOMC Minutes

Thursday

• Earnings from Costco, Dell, Marvell, Ulta, Burlington, MongoDB, Best Buy, Gap, Bath & Body Works, Foot Locker, American Eagle, and Kohl’s

• Q1 GDP Growth Rate (second est. -0.3% QoQ)

Friday

• April PCE Price Index (est. 0.2% MoM, 2.2% YoY)

• April Core PCE Price Index (est. 0.2% MoM, 2.6% YoY)

• April Personal Income (est. 0.4% MoM)

• April Personal Spending (est. -0.1% MoM)

That’s it for today! If you made it this far, you’re exactly why I do this.

All I ask for? A little feedback. Your comments, questions, and suggestions help me improve—and shape future editions.

Just hit reply or leave a quick review below. It helps more than you know.

Keep stacking,
The Money Maniac 💸

DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. All opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.